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PAGE 10 ▼ Q-Notes ▼ April 14, 2001 How Congressional Redistricting affects the GLBT community by Winnie Stachelberg with Mike Mings Special to Q-Notes E, very ten years since 1790, the federal gov ernment has undertaken the enormous task of counting every person in the country as part of a requirement in the Constitution. These fig- used by businesses and demographic ures experts — help to determine federal contracts and aid. The original intent of a national cen sus, however, was to assess changes in the popu lation in order to assure representation in the US House of Representatives. The census conducted in 2000 will be used to determine the number of House seats that each state is assigned; this is known as reappor tionment. Each state must then redraw all of its congressional districts based on population shifts in a process known as redistricting. With nearly all House districts being redrawn, the political landscape for the 108th Congress is unclear. Below is an assessment of the reappor tionment and redistricting that will occur be fore the 2002 federal elections get started. The Census and Sampling The US Census Bureau surveyed the Ameri can people on April 1, 2000. Millions of ques tionnaires were mailed and thousands of counters canvassed the country. The final num bers of the census count, and the official num ber of representatives each state will receive, will be released from March to July 2001. While the vast majority of Americans were counted accurately, many people and groups were missed or undercounted. People of color, people living in poverty and transient persons were the most challenging to capture. Some Democratic members of Congress proposed a sampling process to estimate the extent to which these constituencies were not represented and most Republicans favored numbers garnered from a hard count only. Reapportionment While the final state numbers are forthcom ing, it appears that the following states will lose House seats: Connecticut, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Mississippi, New York (2), Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania (2) and Wisconsin. States that stand to gain include: Arizona (2), California, Colorado, Florida (2), Georgia (2), Nevada, North Carolina and Texas (2). The movement of these seats in Congress is consis tent with that of the last 200 years, as Ameri cans move West and to the Sun Belt. To determine these numbers, each state gets one representative, then the remaining 385 are split among the states based on new popula tion figures. Most districts will be roughly equal in population; the figure for the 1990s was around 640,000 to 660,000. Small states, re gardless of size, are ensured one representative. Redistricting Redrawing federal and state legislative lines is generally a responsibility left to the state leg islatures, and many do it differently. For fed eral lines, seven states will have 6nly one del egate making these decisions. Seven states em ploy an independent commission. The remain ing 36 states, including both North and South Carolina, are mapped by the legislatures. Each district is required to be nearly equal in popu lation and must be contiguous and remain as compact as possible. In 1991 and 1992, new Justice Department regulations required states to attempt to bol ster the representation of minorities by concen trating constituencies in one district. A series of court cases since then has determined that race may hot be a deciding factor in drawing lines, but can be considered. Political parties, communities and incumbency protection can also be factored. The Justice Department requires 16 states, including North Carolina, to submit their plans to the department for approval because their maps in the past did not meet its requirements, like North Carolina’s proposal for a snakelike ■d.S. 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Most states will roll out their plans for dis tricts before the end of the year; some will work into next year. The goals will be to allow time for candidates and voters to know their districts well before the state primaries. States with early congressional primaries, therefore, will be re quired to produce maps earlier than those that normally have primaries in August or Septem ber. The Gay District Some in the gay, lesbians, bisexual and transgender community have expressed inter est in creating a majority-minority district that would create a gay majority in a given place. This plan is difficult because it would require finding nearly 400,000 GLBT persons in an area that is compact and contiguous, Further, it is also not likely to be looked upon favorably by map drawers or the Justice Department be cause data used in drawing maps is derived from the census, which has never included a ques tion regarding sexual orientation on its surveys. Scenarios for Select States While the new numbers and new lines have yet to be announced or implemented, one thing is certain: Redistricting will produce a dramatic increase in marginal and vulnerable incum bents, both early and late in the cycle. At their time of need — even if it is a perceived need, or does not come to fruition — incumbent members of Congress will come to their sup porters, including GLBT political groups, to ask for help. Like other political action com mittees, the Human Rights Campaign (HRC), The Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund, the Na tional Gay and Lesbian Task Force (NGLTF) and the other organizations working for equal ity for our community will be expected to in crease their contributions to most of our friends. Here are several examples of what might happen following redistricting. It is important to remember, however, that these decisions have not yet been made and are therefore subject to change. California After gaining seven seats in the 1990s reap portionment, California will get only one new seat this time, due to slower growth as a result of a recession in the early 1990s. Also new for this cycle is an all-Democratic lineup of the gov ernor, the Senate and the Assembly. Because Democrats picked up four seats in the 2000 election, the first priority of map drawers is likely to protect these new Democratic incum bents — Mike Honda, Jane Harman, Susan Davis and Adam Schiff — all of whom most GLBT activists supported in 2000. A new His- panic-majority district may also be created in the Los Angeles area, which had the most rela tive growth in the state. Democratic mapmakers could attempt to shift precincts around in the 53 districts to force some marginal Republican seats into pick-up opponunities for Democrats. Florida Republican Gov. Jeb Bush has a solid GOP majority in both the Senate and House in Florida, and is likely to ensure that the party retains a majority of the congressional delega tion. Currently, Democrats hold eight seats in Florida while the Republicans have 15 seats. The two new seats that Florida is likely to be allotted could easily be drawn for Republicans in the fast-growing Orlando area or in South Florida. Republicans could also focus on add ing GOP precincts to districts held by Demo cratic Rep. Jim Davis, 11th Congressional Dis trict, and/or Democrat Karen Thurman, 5th Congressional District, making both re-elec tions more difficult than in years past. Georgia In 1990, the Georgia congressional delegation consisted of nine Democrats and one Republi can, Newt Gingrich. The post -1990 redistrict ing and the elections of 1992 brought one new seat, and therefore, eleven new districts, repre sented today by eight Republicans and three Democrats. The governor and both chambers of the legislamre now are controlled by Democrats, who may choose to draw lines in a way that may add more Democrats to the delegation. See REDISTRICTING on Page 14
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