October-November 2016
FEATURES & ANALYSIS
The Stentorian I NCSSM
How Did Donald Trump Win?
By JESSICA SULLIVAN
In the immediate aftermath
of what may have been the
most contentious and divisive
election in decades, many
people are searching for an
explanation. It is easy to claim
that Democrats lost because
they didn’t focus enough on
Rust Belt states (they didn’t)
or because Trump knew
exactly what to say to appeal
to the fears of a white working
class who felt economically
and socially disadvantaged (he
did). It is easy and to an extent
it is necessary; to win in 2020
both sides must analyze their
performance and apply that
analysis in campaign strategy.
However, we must avoid
missing the forest for the
trees. Donald Trump did not
win solely because moderate
Republicans held their breath
and pulled the lever, nor did
he win solely because he had
a dedicated base of supporters
who believed he would provide
the change they so desperately
wanted. I offer three potential
explanations for the election
results, although I must make
the disclaimer that there are
infinitely many more.
Democrats overestimated
their advantage in key states.
Predictions leading up to
the election were largely based
on the theory that Clinton
would hold onto a Democratic
“firew'all” made up of
Michigan, Minnesota, New
Hampshire, Pennsylvania,
Virginia, and Wisconsin. These
states, with 73 electoral votes
between them, would provide
just enough of a buffer for
Clinton to win, giving her 272
votes and putting her over the
270 electoral vote threshold. Of
course, this firewall ultimately
failed, with Trump taking
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and
Wisconsin, as well as the more
contested swing states Florida,
North Carolina, and Ohio.
Democrats largely based
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President-Elect Donald Trump gives his victory speech on Election Night.
MANDEL NGAN. AFP GETTY
their strategy around the
assumption that they would win
the Rust Belt states (Michigan,
Minnesota, and Wisconsin), so
they tended to spend money
and time in other, presumably
more contested states. Clinton
did not visit Wisconsin once
during the entire general
election, and did not visit
Michigan until October 10.
She did not visit Minnesota
at all, only sending Anne Holton
(Tim Kaine’s wife), Bemie
Sanders, and Chelsea Clinton
to campaign on her behalf _
The only state of the three that
she won was Minnesota, with
a margin of 1.5%, making it
one of the closest states in the
country.
Democrats misjudged the
volatility of swing states.
North Carolina, which was
seen as potentially the closest
swing state, ultimately voted
for Trump by a margin of
3.8%; although that is a small
margin. North Carolina was
only the 9th-closest race. North
Carolina fell behind states such
as Maine (7th) and Colorado
(8th) which were considered
fairly solid Democratic
states. Whether this is due
to significant, large-scale
polling failures or Democratic
overconfidence remains yet to
be seen.
Republicans “came home”
Donald Trump’s nomination
came as a surprise to many
moderate Republicans who had
hoped for a more traditionally
conservative standard-bearer.
His controversial and divisive
rhetoric had the potential for
major electoral fallout. Many
pundits predicted (perhaps
not incorrectly) that a large
number of Republicans would
refrain from voting or choose a
third party candidate instead of
voting for Mr. Trump.
He made comments which
could have polarized two
15
President-Elect Donald Trump
traditionally Republican voters,
JOE RAEDLE/GETTY
’s victory can be partially attributed to high turnout amongst
writes columnist Jessica Sullivan.
major groups that traditionally
trend Republican: veterans
and women. However, as the
election results showed us, his
comments did not dissuade
enough of these people to vote
otherwise.
Veterans typically make
up a significant portion of
Republican voters; according
to the national network exit
poll taken in the 2014 midterm
elections, veterans voted with
a 20% margin in favor of
Republican house candidates.
Trump’s comments about
Senator John McCain and the
family of the late Humayun
Khan had the potential to
polarize the 21.8 million
veterans in the United States,
but according to a Sept. 7
NBC News/Survey Monkey
tracking poll. Trump led them
by 19 points, and according
to a CNN exit poll, 61% of
veterans voted for him.
After the release of a tape
showing Trump making lewd
remarks about women, many
Republican elected officials
released statements against
him, some even going as
far as to claim he should be
forced to step down. Married
white women have historically
formed a Republican voting
bloc, but after the release many
pundits believed they would
vote against precedent and
support Secretary Clinton.
However, according to the
Atlantic, she lost white women
43 to 53, granted that she
did so with a smaller margin
than Obama did to Romney.
The answer to this is simpler
than it seems - while there
are some obvious women’s
issues, women (especially
poor women in rural areas) are
affected by the economy and
Trump’s promises of economic
renewal just as much as men
are, which leads me to my final
point:
Donald Trump appealed to
the fears and desires of white
working-class Americans.
By no means did Donald
Trump win solely because he
appealed to white working-
class Americans. To say so
would be a disservice to the
complexities of this election.
However, the group’s impact on
the outcome of this race cannot
be ignored. Donald Trump did
tap into a largely untapped
section of the electorate:
non-college educated white
voters who tend to have lower
incomes.
President Obama won this
demographic in both 2008
and 2012, largely because he
campaigned on promises to
fix the economy after the 2008
financial crisis and to return
critical manufacturing jobs.
Donald Trump’s campaign
promises were, at their core, not
much different. His campaign
slogan, “Make America Great
Again,” is indicative of this
desire to restore the nation to
a fictional ideal period where
jobs were plentiftjl, American
values were upheld, and
white people benefited from
discriminatory laws meant to
disadvantage people of color.
A cocktail of economic
turmoil in rural factoiy
towns and increased social
conservatism as a response
to increasingly liberal social
policy gave Trump’s rhetoric
an opportunity to fester and
spread.
There is no easy answer
for why Donald Trump won,
presumably because there is
no single answer. These three
broad reasons constitute merely
a fraction of the complex
chain of events that led to
this outcome. James Comey’s
handling of the Clinton email
case, constant media coverage
of Donald Trump, the desire for
an “outsider,” and many, many
other factors also contributed.
Ultimately, presidential
elections are referendums on
the current state of politics:
do voters want change or
continuity?
In the end, voters found
more hope in Trump’s promises
of change than in Clinton’s
promises of continuity.