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THE CHOWAN HERALD
NORTH CAROUNA
Farm Tips ggy
From
Wachovia Bank & Trust Co., N.A.
By Dr. J. W. Pou
The U. S. cattle inventory is approaching a turn
ing point.
The largest downward movement of cattle num
bers in history—from 132 million head in 1975 to
116 million early this year—will soon be ending,
and rebuilding of herds will follow according to Bill
Humphries, agricultural information specialist at
N.C. State University.
Production of both beef and pork has typically
occurred in cycles. The beef cycle lasts more than
twice as long as the pork cycle, largely because of
biological factors.
In the case of pork, the time from breeding until
the pigs reach slaughter weight is no more than 10
months. But the time from the breeding of a cattle
man’s heifer until her offspring reaches slaughter
weight can be about 27 months.
And if the heifer’s first offspring is retained to
further increase the herd rather than being sent
to market for slaughter, it could be about 5%
years from the time the first calf is retained to
increase output, until that heifer’s offspring reaches
slaughter.
Chi the other hand, broiler producers can shift
from reduced to increased output in as short a time
as three months.
Historically, according to agricultural extension
specialists at North Carolina State University, there
has been about a four-year production cycle for
hogs and a 10-year cycle for cattle. The length of a
cycle may be affected by external as well as bio
logical factors.
For example, most cattlemen objected strongly
to a U.S. government decision, announced June 8,
to permit the level of meat imports for 1978 to
increase 200 million pounds. The increased allow
ance will raise total imports to about 1.5 billion
pounds and will add about one pound to per capita
consumption.
Industry spokesmen say increased imports will
reduce retail meat prices only slightly, but the
psychological effect on cattlemen will be to dis
courage them from increasing their production as
rapidly as they had planned.
Livestock prices act as signals to the producer,
telling him whether to expand or reduce production.
Higher prices are signals to increase output, low
prices to cut back.
Once production has increased to the point where
supplies are abundant, prices decline. The producer
then gets the signal to cut back. But, it takes time
for him to adjust.
Beef cattle producers sustained heavy financial
losses during most of the past four years. Their
costs held at relatively high levels while the prices
they received for their animals were low.
It was these losses, combined with droughts in
many areas of the United States, that caused a
large reduction in the cattle herd.
Herd reduction provided consumers with record
large beef supplies at relatively low prices. From
1975 through 1977, according to U.S. Department
of Agriculture economist James E. Nix, the rise in
retail beef prices was considerably less than the rise
in the overall consumer price index.
In 1978, rising meat prices—particularly for beef
—have caused concern among consumers because
of the importance of meat in the American diet.
USDA’s Nix said consumer expenditures for red
meats and poultry account for about one-third of
total U.S. food expenditures.
“Cattle producers need more than a few months
of favorable prices just to regain the losses of the
past few years. An extended period of higher prices
will be required to get them to step up beef pro
duction sharply,” Nix said.
It will be three years or longer before increased
beef supplies show up at the supermarket Retail
prices, therefore, are unlikely to return to the
relatively low levels of the past few years.
However, if beef prices get too far out of line,
cattlemen may lose customers to such competing
meats as pork and broilers.
“If consumers turn more toward meats other
than beef, that will moderate beef prices despite
smaller supplies,” Nix said.
Dry ice does not melt but changes from a solid directly
to a gas. The process is called sublimation.
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