Newspapers / The Carolina Times (Durham, … / Jan. 20, 1979, edition 1 / Page 5
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A Weekly Digest of African Afters n n n U.S.ZIMBABWE "WE'LL WAIT AND HOPE' WASHINGTON AN Within the past few weeks, American policy-makers have been busy trying to determine what, if anything, the Carter administration should do about the increasingly violent Rhodesian situation. Most of the brain-storming has been the work of middle and lower level aides, since senior officials have been occupied with Iran, China, and the Middle East. But Rhodesia, which has been a priority concern throughout the two-year tenure of this administra tion, can not help but draw high-level attention once again. The review of policy options which has been taking place this month is far less formal than the study which was already in motion on Inaugural Day in 1977, known as PRM (Presidential Review Mem orandum) 4, At that time, the new planners felt that they had a formula for peace in southern Africa which could succeed where State - Henry Kissinger's shuttle diplomacy " had failed. Instead, a .negotiated change-over to majority rule in Rhodesia seems less possible i in 1979 than it ever has before. And American, officials see their options as increasingly limited. In a series of interviews with AFRICA NEWS last week, officials repeatedly reflected the view that the U.S. can do almost noting to influence the course of events there now. "After the Camp David summit," recalls one State Department policy-level aide, "some people were calling for a 'Camp David' on Rhodesia. But the two situations,, are differejnt. .We ... smun ana utile 1 influence with the Patriotic Front. "We could lean on Smith," another official concedes, "but this would require some political pre paration, It would cause considerable domestic political fall-out." As a result, the administration seems al most certain to issue a "we'll wait and hope for the best" statement when the British government this week releases the report compiled by Cledwyn Hughes, who last month toured Southern Africa accompanied by the U.S. Ambassador to Zambia Stephen Low to determine whether the "all-parties conference" proposal has any chance of succeed ing. The Hughes document is expected to conclude that while an all-parties meeting might be conven ed, after some diplomatic arm-twisting, it would not result in meaningful ne gotiations. One American official who visited the region for consultations last month describes the attitude of the major parties in this way: "Mugabe and Nkomo the Patriotic Front co-eaders think, victory is just around the corner, which is probably over-optimistic. Smith the white leader views his visit here as some sort of tacit recognition, which it isn't. But until this equilibrium is disturbed, there is no hope for negotiations." While diplomacy is stalmated, the war is not Along' with mounting black and white casualities in Rhoedesia are sure to Come political problems for the administration. ,v Officials are already anticipating a challenge from conservative members of Congress, probably in the form of an attempt to lift sanctions. The two Senators most active last year in support of the Rhodesian government, Helms of North Carolina and Haya kawa of California, have been laying plans for new efforts soon after Congress opens late this month. In fact, Helms and Hayakawa both expect to increase their effectiveness by be coming members of the in fluential Foreign Relations Committee. , By contrast, the adminis tration r hampered because no clear replace ment has yet emerged for the defeated Senator Dick , Clark, former chairman of the Foreign Relations subcommittee On Africa and leading advocate of the current Rhodesia policy, although George McGovern has shown an interest in the subcommittee post. On the House side, Charles Diggs, another ad ministration supporter, appears likely to lose the Africa subcommittee chair manship as a result of his recent 1 trial and conviction of charges of defrauding the government. Diggs replacement will apparently not, be a mem ber of the Black Caucus, but third-term New York representative, Stephen Solarz, who was an active member of the sub committee during the last Congress. Some State Department officials are doubtful that McGovern will be helpful to their Rhodesia policy. Late last month, after a visit to Africa which included- r Rhodesian stop-oer, Mc Govern suggested that the U.S., should perhaps "digr engage" from the Anglo American diplomatic effort, which he said has McGovern's recommend ation is as unpopular as the administration's current policy with critics on both the right and left. Conservatives believe both approaches amount to an abandonment of Rhodesia's people in communism, and they advocate support for the current multiracial tran sitional regime. Other critics believe that the guerrillas wide ranging popular support is being ignored, and they argue that the very tejm i, sntrdisengagernentfV itusrepresentsi the ..issue,, , since U.S. influence on Rhodesian events goes far beyond diplomacy, they suggest that applying pressure on Rhodesia's life line, South Africa- a step the administration is un willing to take and McGov ern overlooks-Offers a concrete way to shorten the war. Nevertheless, some kind of American pullback from an obviously unworkable policy - however it is term-ed-may well gain support in coming months within the administration, particualry in the White House. Since other foreign policy issues are sure to create serious domestic political problems, President Carter's advisors may seek to "cut the losses" by trying to pull back from at least one potentially ex plosive issue. And many State Department officials think that will be Rhodesia. For foreign policy reasons, these officials be lieve, the President's Na tional Security Advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski, may also come out for detach ment on the grounds that the U.S. can not afford to be associated with another "losing" policy. Brzezinski's concerns were reported in apparent ly accurate detail by the Washington Post's Jim Hoagland, who quoted him saying to other policy-makers that Rhodesia will become a political disaster for President Carter "when white nuns being raped by black guerrillas wearing red stars on their armbands start appearing on nightly television." That language elicits cringes from State Depart ment planners who see an official retreat from the Anglo-American effort as disastrous for U.S. credibility in Africa and the rest of the develop ing world. " The influential Afrikaans language newspaper Die Transvaler last week charged that the "Rhodesian de fense force itself exercises a form of tenor in terms of martial law," and accused Rhodesian troops of burning the homes of those unfortunate to live in "a terrorist target area." Though morale in the field is difficult to access, the accelerating white flight from Rhodesia is undoubtedly a useful index of the war's turning tide. Oct ober's 1600 and November's 1800 white departures both set - records but observers expect ; far great emigra tion in the months to come. According to the Washing ton Post's David Ottoway, Rhodesia's Reserve Bank, is reportedly processing some 20,000 departure per mit applications, and some analysts estimate that as many as 80,000 ' persons will flee the country byJune of 1979, leaving the white population at less than 170,000. Those whites who have stuck it out so far- esti mates of the white popu lation vary from 225,000 to 250,000-are not, how ever, as solidly behind the new biracial government and its new constitutional proposals as former Prime , Minister Smith had hoped. .Political analysts believe that only a slight majority f of Voters will approve the new constitution when it's put to a whites-only refer endum on January 30. The new constitution. wouldL mortar guarantee whites veto power army in the legislature and con tinued control over the civil service for 10 years. But some of Smith's constiuents remain philosophically opposed to any black gov ernment, while others feel the concessions offered to blacks-such as universal suffrage and 72 out of 100 parlimentary seats-are insufficient to win the new regime international re cognition and stop the guerilla war. ' Nevertheless, even if whites approve the new constitution, the Salis bury government will find it extremely diffi cult to hold the promised April 20 national elections. Smith's three black part- ners-in-government, Bishop of Salisbury are becoming regular events. And the fear of new guerrilla attacks such as the December 23 bomb-, ing of the main Salisbury fuel depot led authorites to place mid-December 24-hour curfew on Rhodesia's second-large- st city, Bulawayo, and a dusk-to-dawn curfew on Salisbury itself. - The Christmas season saw some of the war's bloodiest fighting yet. Searching for urban based guerrillas near the capital, police gunned down five African civilians in the African township of Mabyuku on December 18. Within the next week 51 persons lost their lives in the war, a list in cluding 27 guerrillas, 2 Rhodesian soliders, one white farmer, and as many as 20 black civilians. In the first week of January, 22 more persons were killed, ac cording to a terse govern ment comminique. And on January 9, the Patriotic Front claimed to have killed 19 Rhodesian soldiers in a rocket and attack on an ammunition dump in northern Rho desia. While white Rhodesian leader Ian Smith ad mitted recently that his regime was no longer winning the war, he expressed confidence that the Rhodesian security forces could contain the guerrilla threat. Militarily, the Rhodesian regime still looks to bolster its posi tion with new weapons such as the "Huey'-type American-designed helicup ers it reentry managed to continued South African support as well as some help from a new program of black conscription - until now blacks in the Rhode sian, ,ar(my have been volun Q - - SAT. JAHllARVn 179 3M turrl :fCvfmi JAU Vk' SOUTH AFRICAN HEAVYWEIGHT BOXER KALLIE KNOETZE gives a thumbt-up signal after he learned he had won a temporary court injunction allowing him to fight Saturday in Miami Beach. Knoetze invited Diplomat Hotel Employee Mary Hamhaw (right) to help hold the boxing card with him for the picture. Knoetze knocked out Bill Sharfcay in the 4th (Fourth round ) January 13th. UPI PHOTO Muzorewa: Chief Chirau ahQ b &t.ftSM insSptirV refusing to show up were originally promised elections leading to black rule by December of 1978. The deteriorating military situation, white resistance to the idea and political disarray within the interim government, however, forced postpone ment of that plan. It is improbable that these conditions will improve by April. Accord ing to BBC reporter Justin Nyoka, who spent several months traveling with guerr illas of Robert Mugabe's ZANU, nationalist forces control 85 of the country side. Writing in Mozambique's Tempo maga zine about his experiences with ZANU, Nyoka says the guerrillas have estab lished farming cooperatives, schools and clinics in the zones under their control, often building on existing Rhodesian institutions such as abandoned schools. At the same time the political stock of Executive Council members Muzorewa and Sithole has fallen. Both men have raised private armies that now stand accused of terrorizing Patriotic Front supporters. Some of Sithole's lieuten ants, in fact, currently face trail for the murder of five Africans. And Muzorewa partisans are under suspicion for the assassination of party dis sident Rev. Arthur Kanodereka. ZIMBABWE ' THE BATTLEFIELD ANJ Escalating guerrilla war is not only spreading Rhodesia's limited soldiery thinner but is hitting closer and closer to what were formerly considereed impregnable white strongholds. Farmers in the fertile eastern part of the country, along the border with Mozambique, were among the first affected by the fighting in the early years of the war. According to recent press reports, fewer, and fewer of these planters remain in the area - a fact that damages the economy as much , as the security situation. But now mortar and rocket attacks on homes and industrial targets in the surburbs of the capital for the draft, and even lone- time ally South Africa shows tentative signs of wavering in its support for the first time. MILITARY RULE ENDS IN RWANDA On December 18 Rwan dans gave overwhelming approval to a new constitu tion replacing the one sus pended after the July 1973 military coup. The current leadership ran unchallenged and General Juvenal Habya rimana, who headed the military government, was elected president. WALLACE DEEN MUHAMMAD World Community Of AL ISLAM WILL LECTURE ON EDUCATION A MEANS, OF SURVIVAL Where: McDougald Gymnasium N.CCU. ( When : January 21, 1979 3:00 p.m. r - U i ',4' 1 -'" U "mi r Free Admission Evcryono I7c!cc30 Our warm friendly service comes standard on every car loan. Whether you're buying a station wagon for your family or the sports car of your dreams, the warm friendly people at Guaranty make it easy to ask for a loan. That includes loans for used cars too. And loans for all kinds of other things like home improvements, vacations, appliances, or whatever you need to buy. 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The Carolina Times (Durham, N.C.)
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Jan. 20, 1979, edition 1
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