Professor Andrew
Taylor talks about
statewide races
during last week's
forum at Wake
Forest University.
Photos by Todd Luck
Professor Sunshine
Hillygus speaks as
Professor Zachary
Bynum looks on at a
forum held at Wake
Forest University on
Thursday, Oct. 27.
Professors: Be cautious of political polls
BY TODD LUCK
THE CHRONICLE
Even if candidates like
Hillary Clinton seem to be
winning in the polls, voters
should take nothing for
granted.
This was just one of the
things that came out of a
series of forums held at
Wake Forest University on
issues in the election.
Experts spoke on topics
like immigration, educa
tion and economic pplicy
during the three-day event.
A panel on its final day on
Thursday, Oct 27, focused
on polling and voting in
North Carolina.
"The national media
has been paying attention
to North Carolina, not just
because of how important
we are as a swing state, but
because its a very polarized
place," said Wake Forest
professor Michael Pisapia,
who moderated the event
with Wake Sophomore
Zachary Bynum.
Polling has become a
topic of controversy in the
election. Republican nomi
nee Donald Trump has said
that the polls showing him
losing are "rigged" against
him. Duke University
political science professor
Sunshine Hillygus said it's
actually an old tactic for
politicians to question
polls' methodologies when
they're losing.
While they're not
rigged, polls aren't a crys
tal ball either.
"At the end of the day,
polls are not necessarily
the best tool for predicting
an election outcome," said
Hillygus. "Even if you do
things with the highest
quality standards, you have
to make a guess on who's
actually going to vote."
The problem is that
many pollsters determine
likely voters by simply
asking respondents if they
feel they're likely to vote,
which most people will say
"yes" to. Hillygus gave an
example of a Florida pri
mary poll where 80 percent
of those called were "likely
voters." The turnout for the
primary was only 28 per
cent, so those polled
weren't necessarily the
ones who voted.
Another weakness for
national presidential polls
is that the winner of the
election is determined by
the Electoral College, not
by a plurality of the popu
lar vote. So it matters more
who's leading in certain
states, not who's highest in
the national polls.
Polls can also create
overconfidence about a
certain outcome. She gave
the example of Brexit,
where some British voters
felt so confident it
wouldn't pass because of
the polling that they voted
for it as a protest vote
against the European
Union. They were shocked
to discover the next day
that, partly because of their
votes, Great Britain will be
leaving the union.
Hillygus also said
methodology should be
looked at in polls. Those
that use computer dialing
can't call cell phone
because of federal laws,
which means they can't
poll half of the country.
And flash polls, which
are unscientific polls on
websites that anyone can
vote on, are virtually
meaningless since those
who vote on them aren't
necessarily reflective of the
electorate. Trump declared
victory immediately after
the first debate based on
flash polls. The scientific
polls declared Clinton the
winner.
N.C. State Political
Science Professor Andrew
Taylor said that though
there's a lot of displeasure
among Republicans for
Trump, he doesn't expect a
lot of them to vote
Democrat. Split ticket vot
ing has gotten less com
mon, he says, and party
loyalty is still strong.
Taylor said the race for
governor is getting tighter
as election day nears, and
Gov. Pat McCrory has seen
a boost in his approval rat
ing after the recent flood
ing in the state. The race
for Senate between Sen.
Richard Burr and Debra
Ross is very tight, he said,
with a lot at stake.
'The North Carolina
race could be pivotal on
election night in determin
ing who will control the
senate, hence the tremen
dous amount of attention
paid to the race," he said.
Hillygus said that polls
actually do a better job of
revealing what voters care
about than predicting win
ners. An Elon College poll
asking North Carolina vot
ers what issue they care
about most found that edu
cation, at 29 percent, and
jobs/employment/wages, at
19 percent, were the two
top issues of concern.
Issues like national securi
ty, immigration and federal
debt all polled below 3 per
cent.
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