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Winston-Salem chronicle. (Winston-Salem, N.C.) 1974-current, November 03, 2016, Page A6, Image 6

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Professor Andrew Taylor talks about statewide races during last week's forum at Wake Forest University. Photos by Todd Luck Professor Sunshine Hillygus speaks as Professor Zachary Bynum looks on at a forum held at Wake Forest University on Thursday, Oct. 27. Professors: Be cautious of political polls BY TODD LUCK THE CHRONICLE Even if candidates like Hillary Clinton seem to be winning in the polls, voters should take nothing for granted. This was just one of the things that came out of a series of forums held at Wake Forest University on issues in the election. Experts spoke on topics like immigration, educa tion and economic pplicy during the three-day event. A panel on its final day on Thursday, Oct 27, focused on polling and voting in North Carolina. "The national media has been paying attention to North Carolina, not just because of how important we are as a swing state, but because its a very polarized place," said Wake Forest professor Michael Pisapia, who moderated the event with Wake Sophomore Zachary Bynum. Polling has become a topic of controversy in the election. Republican nomi nee Donald Trump has said that the polls showing him losing are "rigged" against him. Duke University political science professor Sunshine Hillygus said it's actually an old tactic for politicians to question polls' methodologies when they're losing. While they're not rigged, polls aren't a crys tal ball either. "At the end of the day, polls are not necessarily the best tool for predicting an election outcome," said Hillygus. "Even if you do things with the highest quality standards, you have to make a guess on who's actually going to vote." The problem is that many pollsters determine likely voters by simply asking respondents if they feel they're likely to vote, which most people will say "yes" to. Hillygus gave an example of a Florida pri mary poll where 80 percent of those called were "likely voters." The turnout for the primary was only 28 per cent, so those polled weren't necessarily the ones who voted. Another weakness for national presidential polls is that the winner of the election is determined by the Electoral College, not by a plurality of the popu lar vote. So it matters more who's leading in certain states, not who's highest in the national polls. Polls can also create overconfidence about a certain outcome. She gave the example of Brexit, where some British voters felt so confident it wouldn't pass because of the polling that they voted for it as a protest vote against the European Union. They were shocked to discover the next day that, partly because of their votes, Great Britain will be leaving the union. Hillygus also said methodology should be looked at in polls. Those that use computer dialing can't call cell phone because of federal laws, which means they can't poll half of the country. And flash polls, which are unscientific polls on websites that anyone can vote on, are virtually meaningless since those who vote on them aren't necessarily reflective of the electorate. Trump declared victory immediately after the first debate based on flash polls. The scientific polls declared Clinton the winner. N.C. State Political Science Professor Andrew Taylor said that though there's a lot of displeasure among Republicans for Trump, he doesn't expect a lot of them to vote Democrat. Split ticket vot ing has gotten less com mon, he says, and party loyalty is still strong. Taylor said the race for governor is getting tighter as election day nears, and Gov. Pat McCrory has seen a boost in his approval rat ing after the recent flood ing in the state. The race for Senate between Sen. Richard Burr and Debra Ross is very tight, he said, with a lot at stake. 'The North Carolina race could be pivotal on election night in determin ing who will control the senate, hence the tremen dous amount of attention paid to the race," he said. Hillygus said that polls actually do a better job of revealing what voters care about than predicting win ners. An Elon College poll asking North Carolina vot ers what issue they care about most found that edu cation, at 29 percent, and jobs/employment/wages, at 19 percent, were the two top issues of concern. Issues like national securi ty, immigration and federal debt all polled below 3 per cent. ? 1 TO BE The United Way ot Forsyth County in partnership with the Salvation Army of Winston-Saiem, Salvation Army of Greensboro, and Goodwill Industries of NWNC have joined together to provide rapid re-housing and homeless prevention services for very low income veterans across the Triad. The program provides supportive services to help the veteran and their family regain a home, roots in their community, and the support they need to be successful in the future. We serve veterans in Forsyth, Guilford, Surry, Stokes, Davie, Davidson, and Yadkin counties. SERVICES OFFERED INCLUDE: ? Case management ? Housing search and placement ? Deposits ? Short term rent ? Short term utility payments ? Limited moving costs flPjP ? Emergency supplies ? Child care ? Transportation ? Assistance in getting VA benefits CALL 336-788-4965 FOR MOREJNFO Make the dream of home ownership a reality With BNC Affordable Mortgage a fixed rate loan with low to no down payment ? 30 year fixed rate product offering options of 0% to 3% down payment* ? Owner Occupied properties only ? Purchase and rate and term refinance ? Sellers concessions up to 6% ? No PMI ? Qualifying income must be at or below 80% of HUD median Income ? Homebuyer education and home inspection required * A mortgage of $1 SO,000 with a 3% down payment at an Annual Percentage Rate (APR) of 4.112% with 0% points, no origination fee and a credit score of 620 would result in 360 monthly payments of $716.12. This is a representative example. Interest rates and APRs are based on current market rate and are for informational purposes only. Rates are subject to change without notice and may be subject to increase based on property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. The proposed example does not include tax payments or payments for flood or hazard insurance which will cause the payment to be higher. Maximum loan amount is currently $417,000.00 as of date of publication. Borrower may not have ownership in another home at the time of dosing, must not have late payments in the last 6 months and must have a minimum of 12 months rental history. Borrower must contribute a minimum of $500 and have two months of principal, interest, taxes and insurance in reserve. Escrow is required as applicable. Offer is subject to credit approval based on credit history, income and property appraisal. Minimum credit scores and maximum debt to income ratios apply Structural and mechanical systems (such as roof, flooring, heating, etc) must have a remaining life of at least 3 years or must be replaced prior to closing. 0% down payment will result in no property equity until such time the loan principal is paid down through regular mortgage payments and/or the property value appreciates. If property values dedine borrower could owe more than the property's value. Interest on portion of loan that exceeds the value of the dwelling may not be tax deductible and borrower should consult a tax advisor HUD median income varies by area and is the amount at which half of area incomes are above and half of area incomes are below that amount. Seller concessions allow the seller to pay up to 6% of the purchase price toward the home buyer's closing costs Member including loan origination fees, discount points, title search fees and prepaid items such as taxes, insurance and inspections. If combined loan to value (CITV) is greater than 10036 borrower must use eligible down payment assistance program (such as FHLBA, City's DAP, NCHFA, USDA, etc). LENDER

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