FORUM
A pep talk for
progressives
Rob
|Schofield
| Guest
\Columnist
[As of Nov. 10] It's,
been a devastating last 36
hours or so for millions of
caring and thinking people
in the United States and
around the world. The very
notion that Donald Trump
(a man that one of North
Carolina's best known
arch-conservatives
described earlier this year
as "completely unqualified
to be commander-in-chief
and ... a contemptible
human being") is soon to
occupy the Oval Office as
the world's most powerful
human is, in some ways, a
profoundly sobering - even
terrifying - thought.
All of the anxiety that
has accompanied this
development is made that
much more acute by the
. visceral reaction Trump
provokes in so many as the
result of his bluster, coarse
ness, vulgarity and narcis
sism. That such a frequent
ly boorish character will
soon presume to follow in
the dignified footsteps of
Washington, Lincoln, the
Roosevelts, Eisenhower
and Obama just rankles to
such a degree that it's hard
to get one's mind wrapped
around it.
And still we have no
choice but to try. The
inescapable reality of the
matter is that in 10 weeks,
John Roberts will read him
the oath of office, the band
will play "Hail to the
Chief' and military officers
carrying nuclear launch
codes will commence shad
owing him 24 hours per
day.
So, given this unavoid
able situation, how do we
carry on? How do progres
sive-minded people main
tain their sanity arid maybe
even stay engaged in the
fight for a better, healthier
and more just nation and
world? What truths and
motivating thoughts can we
hold onto? What in the hell
do we do tomorrow and in
the weeks and months
ahead?
Here are a few thoughts
on each of those questions
- especially for folks in
North Carolina:
How to carry on and
stay engaged
This ought to be the
easiest of the challenges we
currently face. Sure, the sit
uation at the national level
right now is dreadful in
many ways. Our new pres
ident-elect is pledged to
enact a raft of regressive
and destructive policies
that have the potential to
bring misery to millions,
endanger our personal free
doms and collective securi
ty and cause enormous
harm to the planet.
That said, such was
also the case with numer
ous past presidents; Nixon,
Reagan and the second
Bush come to mind. Sure,
Trump is less polished and
more personally abrasive
and offensive in many
ways than those men. And
Trump has no doubt
brought along a louder and
more provocative base of
supporters in some ways.
There's no doubt that it's
profoundly discouraging.
But what are you going
to do? Quit?
That's not what people
did in 1969, 1981 or 2001.
Instead, they got back to
? work and did their utmost
each and every day to
inform the debate, shape
public opinion, influence
the new leader, blunt the
worst of his efforts and
plant seeds for the future.
Sometimes it worked and
sometimes it didn't, but
there can be absolutely no
doubt it was always worth
the effort and almost
always paid dividends at
some point.
As things stand, it will
only take three Republican
Senators to stop a bill from
receiving the 50 votes nec
essary to pass a new law in
the new Congress (assum
ing Vice President-elect
Pence as a tie-breaker).
Trump has more enemies
than that in the GOP caucus
and no experience at all in
crafting actual legislation.
Surely there is a path for
ward under which he can
be forced in many circum
stances, to compromise
and, as he might put it, "cut
deals."
In such an environ
ment, progressives can
make a lot of hay. As con
servatives have rediscov
ered during the Obama
years, it's often a heck of a
lot easier to stop things
than pass them. Surely,
progressives can return the
favor now.
Hopeful thoughts to
keep in mind
There are actually sev
eral.
? *The North Carolina
situation - Here in North
Carolina, of course, it's all
but certain that Democrats
have, despite the Trump
wave, captured two of the
three main branches of
government that they did
not previously control - the
Governor's office and a
majority on the state
Supreme Court. With Roy
Cooper in the Governor's
Mansion and a fairer and
less ideological majority
running the court, the
Republican majority at the
General Assembly just lost
a lot of steam. The addition
of a couple of new and
promising progressive leg
islators and the defeat and
retirement of some promi
nent right wingers are icing
on this cake.
?More of a ripple than a
wave - The fact that it was
Donald Trump surfing on
top sure piade it seem like a
tsunami swept the nation
Tuesday. But given the
actual vote totals and the
progressive results in
numerous states, it was
really more like a ripple. If
the new President were
named Rubio or Bush and
the vote results were the
same as last night, that's
exactly how experts would
be characterizing the situa
tion. By all indications, the
Republican nominee lost
the national popular vote
for the sixth time in the last
seven elections. Surely this
isn't the sign of an ascen
dant movement.
As was noted on The
Progressive Pulse blog yes
terday morning:
"The nativists and oth
ers fearful of change and
modernity may have eked
out an electoral win last
night at the national level,
but they do not have a man
date for radical change and
will not be able to resist the
demographic tides that
continue to sweep the
country (or modernity
itself, for that matter)."
The 2018 elections -
Off-year elections typically
favor the side that's out of
power - especially when
and if the president in ques
tion gets off to a slow start.
Progressives need to be
planning now to seize the
initiative in 2018 so that
they can push back aggres
sively against conservative
gerrymandering in antici
pation of the 2020 election
that will decide who draws
the political maps after the
next Census.
?Trump's conciliatory
acceptance speech -
Granted, the standards are
pretty low when it comes to
assessing Donald Trump
speeches, but on
Wednesday morning, -at
least for one day, the rancor
and bullying of the cam
paign were missing as
Trump was, for him, almost
gracious. Perhaps now that
he has won, he has at least
some intention to ratchet
down the bombast and vit
riol.
What's next?
The obvious answer
here is twofold. First, of
course, comes the organiz
ing and advocacy alluded
to above. Progressives have
many tools and millions of
motivated citizens standing
ready to push back against
regressive proposals and, at
a minimum, demand con
versation and compromise
in policymaking - "deal
making," if you will.
As D.D. Guttenplan
wrote in The Nation, yes
terday [Nov. 9]:
"The stakes are also
too high not to be strategic.
Not all of Trump's impuls
es were wrong; not all of
his support comes from
racial or sexual fear or
resentment. A trade policy
that puts not just American
manufacturing but
American workers first
would be a worthy goal for
any president. And though
his mixed signals on for
eign policy defy easy inter
pretation, the rejection of
American imperialism that
earned Trump the disdain
of the foreign-policy estab
lishment might well
deserve critical suppon
from progressives ? and
anyone else fearful of out
current plunge into a new
Cold War."
And last, but far from
least, is the matter of
recommitting ourselves to
fighting and winning the
battle of ideas
Progressives will not pre
vail in the great national
debate in which they find
themselves by devoting
their time and treasure to
focus groups, poll-tested
messaging and sanitized
Wall Street-approved can
didates. Trump should have
taught us this.
The key to real and last
ing policy victories lies in
redoubling our commit
ment to engaging and
organizing real people of
all races and backgrounds
and empowering them with
coherent ideas and policies
driven by solid research
and a deep-seated commit
ment to genuine systemic
change in the nation's
increasingly stratified
economy.
Simply put, progres
sives must build the lasting
multi-racial coalition that
President Obama started
but, unfortunately, couldn't
sustain. And the key there
involves real, different and
even radical ideas - not just
another new scheme to
merely garner 50.1 percent
of the electoral vote. Let's
get back to work.
Rob Schofield, director
of research at N.C. Policy
Watch, has three decades o)
experience as a lawyer,
lobbyist, writer, commenta
tor and trainer. Contact
him at rob@ncpolicy
watch.com or 919-861
2065. Follow him
?Rob_Schofield
URL to article:
http:/Iwww.ncpolicy
watch.comJ2016/ll/10/pep
-talk-progressives/
Copyright ? 2016 NC
Policy Watch. All rights
reserved.
HB 2 anger motivates
split-ticket voters in
governor's race
? Joe
[ KiDan
Guest
[Columnist
North
Carolina was
a legitimate
swing state
this year,
having gone
narrowly to
President
D A - a ~ L
u a i a v iv
Obama in 2008 and narrowly to his
Republican challenger Mitt Romney in
2012.
The state leaned conservative this year,
part of a series of swing state Republican
flips that put presidential candidate Donald
Tramp over the top in the electoral college.
But that doesn't tell the whole story.
"The split-ticket voter is apparently
live and well here in North Carolina," said
Dr. Michael Bitzer, a professor of political
science and history at Catawba College.
In an interview with Policy Watch's
Chris Fitzsimon, Bitzer pointed to a series
of Democratic wins in the state - most
prominently Attorney General Roy
Cooper, who finished election night about
5,000 votes ahead of Gov. Pat McCrory in
the gubernatorial race.
Democrat Josh Stein also beat out
Republican Buck Newton for Attorney
General. Newton, a central proponent of
the controversial House Bill 2, was one of
a number of Republicans who straggled to
overcome opposition to the law.
Democratic Supreme Court candidate
Mike Morgan also unseated Bob
Edmunds, the Republican incumbent, by
almost 10 points - one of election night's
big surprises. Though that race is officially
non-partisan, the political left and right
saw it as an important political battle
ground.
But with national attention on
McCrory and his status as America's most
vulnerable governor, the gubernatorial
race was one of the most watched in the
nation.
Though many assumed a Trump win
would carry McCrory, the governor took
62,902 fewer votes than his party's presi
dential candidate statewide. That would
suggest a number of Thimp voters chose
Cooper over McCrory - which is borne out
in the county breakdowns as well. Cooper
took all of the counties Clinton did but also
won Granville, Jackson, Nash and New
Hanover counties - all ground Tramp took
in the presidential contest.
But large, urban counties appear to
have given Cooper the real edge, Bitzer
said.
"I think certainly you have to loot here
in Mecklenburg County and Charlotte to
see he lost a significant amount of votes to
Roy Cooper," Bitzer said.
"The combination of the 1-77 toll roads
in the northern part of the county, a very
Republican part of the county, combined
with HB 2 in the heart of deep blue
Charlotte were the motivating factors to
move Mecklenburg County so much
against Pat McCrory," Bitzer said.
McCrory has yet to concede - waiting
for provisional and absentee ballots to be
counted and suggesting he may request a
recount. By the end of Wednesday, about
44,400 provisional ballots had been report
ed in 69 counties, according to the state
board of elections. But county election
officials across the state say that with a
margin of 5000 votes, those ballots are
unlikely to make much of a difference.
"If Pat McCrory needs 5,000 ... that's
a lot of votes to find in a statewide race,"
** said Kristin MaVromatis, Public
Information Manager for Mecklenburg
County Board of Elections. "People think
*Oh, five thousand votes isn't thtit much
statewide.' But his opponent is likely
going to get the same percentage of the
vote he got previously - so, we're going to
have to talk about a lot of votes."
Mavromatis, who has been in elections
since the early '90s, said in her experience
a change that big due to provisional or
absentee ballots would be so extraordinary
as to be suspicious.
"That doesn't mean it can't happen,"
she said. "We've all been surprised by
results before. But statistically speaking, if
the dynamic changes that much, somebody
did something wrong. If it changes that
much, one of my peers won't have a job
because something was wrong."
Joe Killian, investigative reporter,
joined N.C. Policy Watch in August of
2016. His work takes a closer look at gov
ernment, politics and policy in North
Carolina and their impact on the lives of
everyday people. Before joining Policy
Watch, Joe spent a decade at the News A
Record in Greensboro, reporting on every
thing from cops and courts to higher edu
cation.
WKALxaa ptoo
Gov. Pat McCrory appeared with Donald Trump in the final days of the cam
paign.