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6A NEWS^^e C^atlotte $otft Thursday, March 23, 2005 More blacks move into New Orleans than first thought Continued from page 1A troiible in winning dty/parish elections. We have to remember that New Orleans was 68 percent black in population prior to Katrina, with over 165,000 more blacks than all other racial group numbers combined. About half of all registered voters were black Democrats. Even if blacks are not returning to the city in the proportion, 73 percent, that comprised the evacuees, it appears a majority about 57 percent, of the Mk' returnees are black. •w ‘’As the city continues to repop- M* mTIHKjI ulate, blacks have regained Nagin their numerical dominance, a trend that will continue imtil New Orleans reaches its ‘carrying capacity’ of just over 300,000 around the end of the year. Then the city will grow slowly if at aU for some time But there will be an estimated 115,242 Blacks present in New Orleans by April 22, as opposed to about 103,000 non-Blacks.” ‘Tn fact, using precinct-level data (442 total in Orleans), knowledge of only three things, the number of black Democrats registered, the number of white Democrats registered, and the number of white Republicans registered, produced models of extremely high predictive quality for total vote for a Democrat or Republican candidate.” According to Sadow, the statistics do not favor Republicans at all. Ihs numbers estimate that 53,803 black Democrats are predicted to be in New Orleans on Election Day, compared to less than 18,000 white Republicans. And evenif, unrealistically one theorized that every single white Democrat voted for a Republican, those predicted there only comprise about 26,000. The black and Democrat advantage win continue to grow by the genial election runoff on May 20. Sadow compares voter registi'ation figures historically against this year with current data on returnees. As he outlined to this newspaper, ‘Tn an ordinary year, about the beginning of January a small suige in registrations typical ly would occur, even with an overall population decline This is because of the run up to munic ipal elections. However, this efiect can be dis counted because municdpai elections were pushed back almost three months so the effect would be delayed about as much as well. As a result, this change in the rate of change can reveal the Hkely composition of those trick ling back into New Orleans, by taking the dif ference of the “’normal” pre-Katrina rate and the observed post-Katrina rate for the change rates for black Democrats (82.21 percent of all blacks before the hurricane, 52.23 percent of the active electorate) and the weighted average of the difference for white Democrats (45.34 p^cent of all whites before the b^u^^icane, 13.55 percent of the electorate) and for white Republicans (31.50 percent of all whites before the hurricane, 9.49 percent of the electorate). These parameters can translate total regis tration changes relative to each category into population, by first finding tire pre-hurricane population’s relationship to registration, then using post-hurricane registration figures to extrapolate population byrace. Usingthe data, Sadow mathematically reasons that 57.3 per cent of retumees/immigrants are black, 36 per cent are white, and 6.7 percent other race. His report concludes, “’This shows tiiat non blacks disproportionately comprise the post- Katrina returnees to Orleans, since 73 percent of evacuees were black. Thus, when projecting numbers for registrants who are present in the parish, even if immediately after Katrina they were disproportionately non-black compared to pre-Katrina levels, blacks are returning at a higher rate than whites meaning the relative non-black advantage immediately after the disaster will continue to ^ode. Converting these calculations into projections shows that by the time the rescheduled elections occur, blacks just will have regained the registration advantage over non-blacks in Orleans. Competition among civil rights museums make fund raising tight THE ASSOCIATED PRESS GREENSBORO - Years in the planning and stUl mil lions of dollars fi'om opening, the International Civil Ri^ts Center and Museum finds itself in a tough fight for fimd- ing dollars against several other hi^-profile museums focusing on the AMcan- American experience. “I don’t want to think of our selves as a niche,” musemn director Amelia Parker said. “I want us to think of Greensboro, and about how in the bosom of this country, we had a heartbeat that allowed us to push a move ment through the South.” Planned since 1994 for the site of the Woolworth’s lunch coimter where four North Carolina A&T State University students launched the naticttiwide sit-in move ment on Feb. 1, 1960, muse um officials last year saw their construction budget bal loon firom $10 million to $16 million The budget rise was due to repairs to a leaky base ment and the need to meet standards for affiliation with the Smithsonian Institution. In Jjinuary two local foim- dations hired a full-time con sultant on fundraising. Next month, Parker and other musetmi leaders are expected to launch a rene^yed cam paign for donations and pro vide an update on how much more money is needed to fin ish the facility Parker said she hopes the new campaign will raise the national profile of the planned museum. “It’s a significant challenge, but om effort is unique in several ways,” Parker argued. “What happened in Greensboro was such a cata lyst. That has a cache to it that lends to the uniqueness of what we’re doing.” The refusal by a quartet of black students — Ezell Blair Jr, now known as Jibreel Khazan; Franklin McCain; Joseph McNdl; and tiie late David Richmond — to leave the segregated Woolworth’s lunch counter helped jump- start the civil rights effort nationally at a time when the movement had become bogged down in disputes over tactics. More than 45 years later, musemn leaders are in a fight for fundraising dollars. In Fredericksburg, Va., leaders of a proposed U.S. National Slavery Museum, including former Virginia Gov. Douglas Wider and celebrity donor Bid Cosby are trying to raise $200 million In Washington, D.C., a $500 million National Museum of Afiican American History and Cultme is planned as part of the Smithsonian Institution and slated for a 2012 opening with exhibits on civil ri^ts issues and modern-day issues in black culture. And across the South, direc- tore of existing mixseums are trying to drum up money to better teU their part of the black ejqjerience. The Birmingham (Ala.) Civil Rights Institute, which opened in November 1992, features exhibits on segrega tion, voting rights and civil rights marches and raised more than $3 million in 2004. In Memphis, 'Ifenn., the National Civil Rights Museum at the Lorraine Motel, where the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. was assassi nated, opened in 1991 and has since been expanded at a cost of $11 million And ip.'Atlanta, the Martin Luther King Jr. Center for Nonviolent Social Change features photographs and other exhibits, includirg the funeral wagon that carried King’s body According to tax records, the center received $2.2 million fix)m private and government sources in 2003. “The fundraising aiviron- ment is consistently more competitive,” said Ed Able, chief executive officer of the American Association of Museums in Washington . “The situation of any new museum today is a challenge, regardless of what kind of museum it is.” Lawrence Pijeaux , presi dent of the Birmingham dvil rights museum and the Association of Afidcan American Museums, said actually getting the Greensboro museum open after years of planning could sptir local exdtem^t about the project and bring in more donations. “When you talk about the dvil rights movement and slavery those are tough top ics for people to discuss,” he said. “Once individuals understand that these insti tutions are being created to improve race islations ... I think people feel much better about the positive aspects of it” Shaw University basketball team flies to national tournament in style Continued from page 3A said. “I thought the plane might set the tone.” The Bears are four-time champions of the Central Intercollegiate Athletic Assodation. But before Monday the team’s only prablic recognition for its accomplishments this year was a sign on the window of the McDonald’s near* campus. 1116 trip marks the second time Gary has used his plane to fly the Bears to a competition and the third time the plane has been used by a school team. As long as the Gary-sponsored flights don’t indude any vacation-like stopovers, they are consistent with NCAA rules, said Jennifer Kearns, assodate director of public and media relations for the organization. The Bears lost to St. Cloud State 78-71 Wednesday for a berth in the national semifi nals. 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