Thuria. June 1J. I JbO The Tar Hrcl I
commentary and analysis
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By Thomas Jessiman
NEW YORK It sounds like a scenario
out of On the Beach. Soviet land-based
missiles and submarine nuclear missiles
are launched and head for key sites in the).
United States., American computers pick
up the missiles from visual and audio
receptors and alert Ihe:. Dejense
Department. ' ' '
In minutes, strategic bomber crews are
dispatched to planes and start the engines,
battle-control aircraft are readied for take
off and one in Hawaii is ordered into the
air. Silo-based missiles are brought closer
to the stage of firing. Generals prepare to
bring the forces up to the next alert level.
"Could it happen?" books make for
entertaining summer reading, but either
because we hate to think too much about it
or because we simply forget, we seldom
dwell on the idea of a nuclear holocaust.
Perhaps we are numbed by figures in the
media that compare the tens of times
America and the Soviet Union can
devastate the earth's surface. We grow
accustomed to nuclear annihilation
looming like a dark cloud high overhead
But that distant threat became very vivid
recently when the scenario described above
nearly happened and much more could
have.
Due to two errors by the computers of the
North Atlantic Air Defense Command, the
conclusion was reached that the Soviets
had launched nuclear missiles some of
which could have found their mark in just
15 minutes. It took three minutes for
American generals to confirm the error and
by that time our forces had been put on the
higher stage of alert
The Pentagon was quick to point out
that numerous checks are incorporated
into our defense system to prevent a
computer from "pushing the button"
- itself. But the fact that this is the second
. jime in seven, month that a computer 3rhix
up h?d caused knV alett'tfehs q un'dereut
that confidence. In th ftfst pecurf ence, a
technician Tunning attest Jtap thrbugha
computet accidentally 5 tunneled the
information into lfve channels.
But beyond the issue of whether the
Pentagon can control itself is the
possibility that the Soviets might react to
an American alert with one of their own.
Fortunately, this time that did not happen.
Soviet warning systems and and
computer technology are less well
developed than America's, and 75 percent
of their nuclear strike force is based on
land much more vulnerable to attack
than the better-balanced land-based,
airborne and seaborne U.S. forces. For
these reasons and others, the Soviets need to
react fast to an American alert and have less
time to confirm data. Under this pressure
they would be more likely to make
mistaken judgments with terrible
consequences.
No matter how much they downplay the
incident, the people at the Pentagon clearly
were worried. At first, an effort was made to
keep the incident secret and later, when
asked if the computer mistake might have
touched off escalating responses on both
the American and Soviet sides, Assistant
Secretary of Defense Tomas B. Ross said,
"I'm going to duck that question."
All this comes at a time when the concept
of nuclear control has been arrested with
the shelving of SALT II by the president
and Congress. Today such an action can
only be deplored. And even more
ridiculous than the reality that a computer
mix-up could cause World W ar III is that
we should be placed at the mercy of these
nuclear warheads in the first place.
Of course, we must make the Soviets
understand that their aggression in
Afghanistan will never be condoned Yre
have done that at least symbolically with
the Olympic boycott and the grain
embargo. And perhaps it was necessary to
break ties for a while after the invasion, but
it is now time to separate Afghanistan from
the issue of an arms pact and to talk.
No doubt the Senate will want to make
changes in the SALT II treaty, but
opponents of an arms pact of any kind
show a dangerous myopia. Limits on
further growth of Soviet strategic forces
and number of warheads on a particular
missile, as well as means of verification of
nuclear strength, are integral to any hope
of checking the madness of a nuclear arms
race.
As Cyrus Vance, former secretary of state,
pointed out in a recent speech, the failure
to reach an accord over nuclear arms will
have a serious effect on non-nuclear
countries. These nations will have less
reason for their own restraint Vance asked
congressmen and the president to look
. beyond re-election considerations: "I am
aware of the political difficulties in acting
at this time. But if we fail to act we will
someday ask ourselves why we were
Vance
Muskle
blinded by considerations of the moment
and lost a vital long-term, opportunity."
Apparently someone in the White House
listened to Vance, -because the next day
Secretary of Slate Edmund Miiskie stressed
the need for ratification of the treaty. "The
two issues (Afghanistan and SALT II) are
separable." Muskie rightly pointed out
how the confrontation over Afghanistan
ought to make us more eager to control
arms and ensure our national security '
rather than abandon all the work that has
been done before. It seems we always will
live with nuclear warheads pointed at our
homes, but perhaps before we rush
headlong into the endless tunnel of an
arms race we should reconsider for a
moment
These days most people worry about
dying of heart disease or cancer. It seems
remarkable that actually our fate may lie
with a malfunction of a computer. The
more missiles we build, the greater the
chance for mistakes and foul-ups. Clearly,
tough as it may be in election year, we
should avoid pouring money into more
nuclear warheads at all costs else On the
Beach will become much more than just
pleasant summer reading.
Thomas Jessiman, a junior English major
from Newton, Mass., is associate editor for
The Daily Tar Heel.
. the week at a glance by Elliott Warnock
Trial begins
The wheels of justice often , turn sowly, and in
Greensboro they are grinding slower than usual.
Supporters of the Communist Workers Party helped
throw a wrench in the judicial machinery Monday at the
opening of the trial of six Ku Klux Klansmen and members
of the American Nazi Party. The six are charged with
murdering five communist workers last Nov. 3.
Four communist supporters were arrested outside the
Greensboro courtroom after they fought with police. The
demonstrators had gathered in the hall outside the
courtroom to denounce the trail after Superior Court
Judge James Long ordered the courtroom cleared of "those
persons that are disturbing the court"
Jury selection for the trial is expected to lake five weeks.
Sowcto still troubled
While some people in the United States are trying to
prophesize where the "next Miami" will be, South Africa is
still suffering through the same racial violence as years
ago.
Four years after the riots in Soweto, at least 15 persons
were killed and more than 50 wounded Monday, Tuesday
and Wednesday in clashes with South Africa police. The
violence-was widespread over South Africa, with riots
sparked off in Soweto, Johannesburg and Cape Town, on
the fourth anniversary of riots in Soweto in which
hundreds of black and mixed-race South Africans were
killed by police.
Soviets troubled in Afghanistan
The war in Afghanistan has gotten more costly for the
Soviet Union recenUy. Soviet warplanes penetrated.
Pakistani airspace, according to a Pakistani official
Monday, and Moslem rebels claim to have shot down
another two Soviet helicopters this week.
Urban guerrillas in Kabul are daily assassinating an
, average of 10 members of the Soviet-backed ruling party,
according to Western diplomatic sources.
West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt will visit
Moscow later this month. Schmidt told the West German
Parliament Tuesday that he would try to "use every
opportunity" to ease international tensions," and said he
would follow a line "which we consulted with our friends
and allies."
Schmidt will make the trip June SO, after a meeting in
Venice with leaders from France, Great Britain, Japan,
Italy, Canada and the United States.
President Carter leaves today for the Venice summit
The meeting in Venice will be concerned mostly with
economic issues, but will cover broad political and
strategic problems. It is the sixth such economic meeting
in six years, but it will be the first to encompass political
issues.
Carter to go to summit
When President Carter arrives in Venice, he will be
facing some of the members of the European Common
Market, which voted Sunday to recognize "the legitimate
rights of the Palestinian people" and called for a role for
the PLO in Mideast peace talks.
The United States continually has opposed
participation of the PLO as long as it refuses to recognize
Israel's right to exist. Israel, still stalled in talks with Egypt
over self-rule for Palestinians living on the West Bank,
denounced the Common Market resolution.
Carter was host Tuesday to Jordan's King Hussein. It
was Hussein's first visit to theUnited Sutes m three years.
Hussein said Tuesday that he was committed to peace in
the Middle East, but said he and Carter still have
"differences . . . regarding the route we take. There are
doubts about the prospects for peace."
Computer failure
The Pentagon announced Tuesday that recent computer
problems leading to two recent false alarms about Soviet
missle attacks (see Thomas Jessiman's column above) were
. caused by failure of a tiny circuit "about the size of a dime."
It brings to mind former astronaut John Glenn's
comment years ago about what he thought about while
waiting for launch in a space capsule. All he could think'
about he said, was that every piece of equipment in his
capsule was manufactured "by the cheapest bidder on a
government contract" .
Only $209 million
A government review stated Tuesday that the Social
Security payments to retirees and survivors in 1978-79 were
"better than 99.7 percent error-free."
If that margin of error is correct, then the Social Security
office misspent $209 million in payments from October
1978 to September 1979.
A Social Security spokesmazfsaid about 50 percent of the
incorrect payments went to college students who received
money after leaving school without notifying the
government ,
Reagon leading race
Ronald Reagan is leading the race for the presidency,
according to Gallup and Roper polls released this week.
The Gallup poll, released Monday, shows Reagan
leading Carter 45 percent to 42 percent If the race included
independent John Anderson, then Reagan would get 56
percent
The Roper poll, released Tuesday, shows that Reagan
would beat Carter 4Q-to-36, with 24 percent of the voters
undecided. With Anderson in the race, Reagan would get
34 percent, Carter 29 percent and Anderson 20 percent,
with 17 percent undecided.
Anderson supporters in North Carolina have something
to be happy about The N.C Board of Elections said
Tuesday that Anderson virtually is assured of a spot on the
N.C. ballot in November.
The board accepted petitions containing signatures of
19,400 registered voters, almost double the necessary
number for approval.
Iran
And in Iran Wednesday, the U.S. hostages suffered
through Day 223 of their captivity.