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Experts see trend
Likud-based coalition likely in
By JOHN BAKHT
A new conservative coalition
government dominated by the right
wing Likud bloc of Prime Minister
Yitzhak Shamir is likely to solidify
soon, leaving behind prospects for
peace in the Middle East and four
years of political deadlock in Israel,
; The Likud Party cannot form a
coalition without the cooperation of
the religious parties that won 18 seats
in the Knesset, Israel's parliament.
The religious parties have not won
this many seats since 1965.
In the election, the Likud bloc
captured 40 seats, edging out the left-bf-center
Labor Party, which took 39
seats. Likud and Labor have been in
a tenuous "national unity" coalition
Labor and Likud both lost votes
to the religious right in this election
because they have essentially been a
do-nothing administration for the last
four years, said Herbert Bodman,
Middle East expert and UNC
; The remaining 23 seats that fill the
;120-member Knesset are divided
among what are considered extremist
By SUSAN HOLDSCLAW
; With less than two weeks before
Canadian voters go to the polls, new
fears that the Liberal Party will gain
power and jeopardize a trade agree
ment with the United States have
emerged. But a Canadian political
expert said he doesn't foresee disaster
around the corner.
A poll by the Environics Research
Group, published in Globe and Mail
Newspaper, showed the Liberals with
37 percent of decided voters and
Prime Minister Brian Mulroney's
Progressive Conservative Party with
.- The socialist New Democratic
Party was third with 26 percent.
Anything less than a majority
Conservative government could harm
the trade agreement signed by Mul
roney and President Reagan in
January. The pact, already approved
by the U.S. Congress, would begin
a 10-year period of phasing out
remaining tariffs between the neigh
bors Jan. I. However, the agreement
has not been approved by the Can
. Alec Douglas, a Canadian member
of Duke University's Center for
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Some analysts say last week's
elections will ensure the preservation
of what has come to be an uncom
promising fight-fire-with-fire policy
in the occupied territories of the West
Bank and Gaza Strip, where no end
is in sight for the 11 -month-old
"If a rightist coalition is formed
under Likud it would be less likely
that (peaceful) negotiations will begin
in the near-term future," Joseph
Helman, graduate teaching fellow at
George Washington University, said
in a telephone interview.
"As long as people fail to realize
that by violence nothing can be
achieved, the uprising will continue,"
said a spokesman for the Israeli
embassy in Washington, D.C. "We
are determined to try and be very
tough on those who incite violence."
Shamir has said it is likely that an
increasing number of Jews will settle
in the occupied territories, a process
he favors. But the United States and
the Labor Party in Israel consider
that kind of expansion an obstacle
Shamir opposes an international
conference on Middle East peace but
will stick to the Camp David accord
that calls for bilateral talks without
election may affect tirade pact
Canadian Studies, said the Liberals
have a good chance of winning on
Nov. 21 because they have strong
support in Ontario, a key province
in past elections.
However, the trade agreement may
remain intact. "Although Canadians
say tearing up the trade agreement
will cause severe economic hardship
in Canada by causing the dollar to
go down and jobs to be lost ... in
my opinion, the pact agreement will
stay in place," Douglas said in a
"It's a very good political weapon
to play with because they can alarm
Canadians with a loss of national
identity with free trade," he said. "The
value of the dollar will probably go
down anyway. It's overpriced accord
ing to all economic indicators in
Unlike the American electoral
system, Canadians vote for a party
rather than a specific candidate.
Citizens vote for a local member of
Parliament, and the party gaining the
largest number of seats wins the
election. The leader of the majority
party then becomes the prime
"Elections in Canada have more to
And only 19-26
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Labor supports both a conference
and trading some land for peace.
Palestinians don't seem upset by
the election results. "I don't differ
entiate between the Labor Party and
the Likud Party," said Said Haman,
deputy director of the Palestine
Affairs Center in Washington. "Their
policies toward Palestinians are the
It remains unclear what bargains
will be struck at the negotiating table
and what impact the religious right
will have on a coalition. The National
Religious Party, which won five seats
in the Knesset, said Monday that it
preferred joining a coalition headed
by the Likud bloc. But Shamir
concedes little to the extreme right.
He has said he will not annex the
occupied territories, nor will he
"transfer" Palestinians there to Arab
countries, as some potential coalition
It is also uncertain what conces
sions on social reform the religious
right may get from the Likud Party.
Fundamentalist Jews want greater
restrictions on the Sabbath and a
more conservative definition of a Jew,
which would affect who can be called
do with the ideology than the man,"
said Marion Salinger of Duke's
Center for Canadian Studies.
"They vote for a party, but the
charisma of the prime minister has
an influence on most constitutents
across the country," Douglas said.
The Liberals have soared in the
polls from their third-place low since
Mulroney called the election Oct. 1.
Their success has shocked the Con
servative Party, which played a
dominant role in Canadian politics
for much of this century.
Douglas described the election as
one of the most volatile and inter
esting elections in Canada this cen
tury, with the media playing a prime
role in image-making.
The latest Environic survey was
based on interviews with 1,538 voters
after the Oct. 24-25 nationally tele
vised debates between Liberal leader
John Turner, Mulroney and New
Democratic leader Ed Broadbent.
The poll had a 2.5 percent margin
During the debates, Turner
accused Mulroney of selling out
Canada with a. document that could
turn the nation into a U.S. colony.
calories per ounce.
lnO 106W. Franklin St.
more conservative Israel
United States supports Israel on
By DAVID BALL
U.S.-Israel relations seem stable
following a United Nations' vote last
week in which the United States and
Israel were the only two countries to
vote against a U.N. resolution con
demning Israeli human rights viola
tions in its occupied territories,
The United States opposed the
resolution because it used inflamma
tory rhetoric and did not provide a
fair appraisal of the issue, said
Caroline Dulin, a press and public
affairs officer with the U.S. mission
to the United Nations.
"We basically felt the resolution
was, as usual, a one-sided approach
stating the problem only from the
Palestinian viewpoint," Dulin said in
a telephone interview. "It condemned
the actions of only one party."
The United States believes that the
best way to solve the problem is
through negotiations among Israel
and her Arab neighbors, Dulin said.
The occupied territories are an
internal matter for the Israelis alone
to deal with, she said, and the United
States has limited leverage to deal
with the problem.
"We can only stress our concern
Mulroney responded that the
agreement was a mere commercial
document, capable of being canceled
at six months' notice.
Yet Mulroney generally speaks of
the agreement as critical to future
national prosperity, and many Can
adians were confused or angered by
his seeming contradiction.
"There has been a lot of distortion
in describing what the free trade
agreement will do for Canada," said
Anne Chappell, a media relations
officer at the Canadian Embassy in
The debates crystallized the trade
agreement as the dominant campaign
issue, but Douglas said defense would
also play a major role.
The Conservative party has estab
lished a program to buy eight to 12
nuclear-powered submarines for the
Canadian Navy during the next 25
years. However, the Liberal Party has
pledged to cancel that program and
buy conventional submarines instead.
"It will make a difference on what
the Navy looks like in the future,"
Douglas said. "In my view, (the
election) is probably more important
on the defense, program than on the
trade issue if the Liberals get in."
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The Daily Tar
for the continuation of violence on
both sides," Dulin said. "We feel often
that the reprisals are too harsh."
But the United States has a history
of supporting repressive regimes
when national security issues are at
stake, said Laurie Brand, author of
"Palestinians in the Arab World."
"In general, when the U.S. has
viewed that it is in its interests, the
U.S. has been able to ignore human
rights violations," she said.
U.S. support of Israel dates back
to its role as one of the founding states
of Israel and has continued because
Israel has a strategic location and
democratic government, Dulin said.
The recently-elected Likud govern
ment might increase suppression of
the Palestinian uprisings, using tanks
and heavier artillery, Brand said. If
that occurs, U.S.-Israel relations
could become strained, but given the
past tensions that the relationship has
survived, a significant change is not
likely, she said.
"If that (a harsh crackdown) were
"I don't think anything radical will
happen, but I do think that he will
make some changes," said Mark
Gamble, a graduate student from
Fayetteville. "He realizes that it is
Reagan's agenda that allowed him to
be elected. He will have some pro
grams of his own, but he will basically
follow Reagan's policies."
A geography professor, who asked
not to be named, agreed. "Nothing
will happen in the short term because
of the checks and balances of the
system," he said. "It is not decisive."
Some people said the U.S. is
heading for trouble, regardless of who
won the presidential election.
"I think we would be in trouble
financially no matter which way it
went," said Dave Anthony, an Eng
lish graduate student from Berkeley,
Calif. "I think that the Republican
win will delay the crisis, while a
Democratic victory may have quick
ened the process."
About 20 percent of the people
interviewed said they have a bleak
view of the future as a result of this
"I have a feeling that something
really bad is going to happen both
economically and militarily," Byrd
said. "I think that we won't do enough
about the deficit and that we will be
Barns noted other possible effects
of the election. "The, rich will keep
getting richer, and the poor will keep
getting poorer and abortion will be
1 I lj
HeelThursday, November 10, 19383
U.N. resolution '
to happen, the U.S. might re-evaluate!
its relationship with Israel," she saidj
"I can't imagine this problem bringing
the relationship to the breaking
Tensions are unlikely to signifi
cantly alter relations because the"
United States has historical ties to
Israel, Dulin said.
"I certainly would never see a break
in relations," she said. "Morally we
have a commitment as one of the
founding states of Israel." ?
Prospects for peace are bleak, said
a State Department official whd
asked not to be identified. The
violence seems to have hardened thei
attitudes of both sides, he said.
"The violence has not been esca
lating; it's been ongoing, organized,
and carried out with a political
objective," he said. "Clearly the
Israelis have the stronger hand."
Dulin said the United States favors'
negotiations in a bilateral context and'
remains actively engaged in efforts to
reduce tensions in the region.
from page 1
Some people said they thought
some things will improve, and others
will worsen. '
"There is a light at the end of the
tunnel for the Democrats," said
Stewart Waller, a journalism major
from Kent Store, Va. "Bush will be
facing a Democratic legislature and
the status quo will persist and the
deficit will keep building because of
a stalemate. Maybe this country will
get what it deserves for voting out
of complacency. They voted for today
and not for what tomorrow will
A political science professor said:
"We will have a more intelligent
foreign policy and the poor won't be
any better off."
Sixteen of the 24 who voted
supported Dukakis. Of those that did
not vote, three were leaning toward
Dukakis and three toward Bush. .
Experience was key for those who
voted for Bush.
"Bush has done a lot more and has
a more balanced background," Gam
ble said. '
Dukakis had strong support oh
campus, but some people who voted
for Dukakis said they voted because
of party affiliation or because they
"Dukakis" spoke more about the
issues and showed more qualities I'd
like to see in a president," a professor
Colin Gillespie,, a senior from
Portland, Maine, agreed. "Bush made
me decide on Dukakis."
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