THE PENDULUM
WEDNESDAY. DECEMBER 9. 2009 // PAGE 9
ditorial
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THE PENDULUM
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EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
Andie Diemer
MANAGING EDITOR
Alexa Milan
ADVISER
Colin Donohue
SECTION EDITORS
Margeaux Corby,
A/ews
Laura Smith,
News
Samantha King,
Assistant News
Morgan Little,
Opinions
Laura Wainman,
Special Projects
Rachel Cieri,
Features
Amanda Kennison,
Arts Sf Entertainment
Pam Richter,
Sports
Sam Calvert,
Assistant Sports
SENIOR REPORTERS
Jack Dodson
Anna Johnson
Rebecca Smith
Hannah Williams
ONLINE
Ashley Barnas,
Editor-in-Chief
Camille DeMere,
Multimedia Editor
Dan Rickershauser,
f^ultimedia Editor
Alex Trice,
f\Aultimedia Editor
Melissa Kansky,
Multimedia Intern
COPY
Jennifer Clements,
Copy Chief
Victoria Doose,
Copy Editor
Christina Edwards,
Copy Editor
Jordan Frederick,
Copy Editor
David Koontz,
Copy Editor
Michelle Longo,
Copy Editor
Rebecca Wetherbee,
Copy Editor
Lindsay Kimble,
Copy Intern
Anna LoPresti,
Copy Intern
PHOTO DESK
David Wells,
Photo Editor
Lindsay Fendt,
Staff Photographer
Katie Lazor,
Staff Photographer
Justine Schulerud,
Staff Photographer
DESIGN
Caroline Matthew/s,
Design Chief
Miriam Williamson,
Design Editor
Gabriela Szewcow
Design Intern
BUSINESS
Chris Dorsey,
Business Manager
E.J. Young
Assistant Business
Manager
Rachel Bakerman
Local Sales Representative
A look into the years to come
Slow growth, global competition lie ahead
The future, as ambiguous and
amorphous as it’s often characterized,
doesn’t exist in an isolated vacuum.
The events of the upcoming years are
contingent on current trajectories, which
may bode ill for an uplifting decade ahead.
There are countless landmines laying in
wait in the global and national landscape,
and the detonation of some may already be
unavoidable.
For example, Iran’s ascension into
nuclear statehood is now increasingly
impending. Diplomatic efforts will grow
increasingly frantic as Iran’s stubbornness
continues, Russia and China maintain their
reticence to impose any sort of punitive
measures against the country and Israel’s
unease over the thought of a nuclear rival
boils over.
But Iran is in a perfect situation to
pursue its atomic aims, given that no
country, save Israel, seems willing to risk
legitimate military action, and further
economic sanctions could serve as a
rallying cry for Iranian citizens to turn
against the West and forget about their own
government’s shady dealings.
While the economy has shown signs of
life, with the unemployment rate dropping
to 10 percent nationwide, though North
Carolina’s rate is still a percentage point
higher, and the International Monetary
Fund projects the U.S. GDP will increase by
an admittedly low 1.5 percent, the typical
V-shaped recession model is unlikely to
set in. Instead of a drastic increase in
production following a precipitous drop in
demand, which accounts for the upward
part of the V, recovery will most likely be
incremental.
Despite the drop in overall
unemployment, long-term unemployment,
as defined by those who have been out
of work for 27 weeks or more, increased
by 2.7 percent. And the 8.1 percent in
productivity during the third quarter,
the highest increase since 2003, could be
attributed not to the robustness of the U.S.
economy, but instead to its ability to get by
without workers.
In fact, the Bureau of Labor Statistics
forecasts hourly wage increases, as
compared to the previous year, will only
hit 0.2 percent next year, as opposed to 4.1
percent just a decade earlier.
This relative stagnation of wages, when
accompanied by the previously steep drop
in household wealth as a result of dips
in the stock and housing markets, looks
to hamper future increases in consumer
spending.
In spite of the typical rush for Black
Friday bargains, overall retail sales
increased 0.5 percent in November,
according to Thomson Reuters. Though
the results exclude firms such as Walmart,
which release its sales figures at the end of
the quarter, the consumer sector is still a
shadow of its former self. And the political
fallout of unimpressive growth will be
immense.
Regardless of whether or not health
care reform passes in Congress or if
the initial results of the increased
deployments to Afghanistan look good,
the damage to the Democratic agenda
has been done. California, already in a
state of disarray because of monetary
disaster, will be voting on whether to
call a new constitutional convention
in November 2010. The state's current
setup, a complicated mix of democratic
populism and progressive social programs
accompanied by massive public spending
on the part of the state government, won't
last much longer.
Once a bastion of liberal ideology, the
Republican Party will undoubtedly see
its continued failures as an indication of
its legitimacy. Even if President Barack
Obama’s administration regains some of
its luster, the likelihood of Republican
gains during the midterm election will put
a damper on what he can and can’t look to
accomplish.
The legacy of the 2010s may very well
be of the long-ballyhooed emergence of
new world powers. China, after averaging
yearly GDP increases of almost 10 percent
over the past 30 years, is expected to
surpass Japan as the world’s second-largest
economy next year. Provided governmental
efforts to increase consumer spending
succeed and its various internal political
conflicts don’t ignite, China will finally
make a big step toward parity with the
United States.
Both Brazil and India look to make
similar gains in the upcoming years,
with both nations emerging from the
recession much faster than their Western
counterparts. In the previously mentioned
IMF report, European GDP growth is
projected to be 0.3 percent in 2010,
compared to 6.4 percent for India and 3.5
percent for Brazil.
This diversification of the global
community, with U.S. power declining
in respect to that of emerging countries,
must be subsequently reflected in the Elon
community. The university’s strategic plan
calls for an increasingly diverse student
body and places an emphasis on bringing
the global community back to Elon, but as
the Chronicle of Higher Education revealed,
minorities account for only 9 percent of
Elon’s faculty.
Though the demographics are better
than those of Furman University, which
sits at 7 percent, and Appalachian State
University with only 5 percent, the
nation as a whole is projected to become
increasingly diverse. The U.S. Census
Bureau projects almost 20 percent of the
nation's population will be Hispanic by
2020, and by 2050, 54 percent of the total
population will be comprised of minorities.
But admittedly, everything above is
based upon projections and predictions.
Though likely, nothing is set in stone and
any number of unexpected events could
emerge in the next decade. What is certain
is that, without vibrant debate and careful
consideration, the events of the future
will reflect the poor decisions of the past
instead of the bold actions of which each
citizen is capable.
PEERING INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL:
THE POSSIBLE AMERICAN FUTURE
BY THE NUMBERS
1.5 percent GDP growth in 2010
12.2 million projected to be the
North Carolina population by 2030
19.7 percent of population v»/ill be age
65 or older by 2030
20 percent Hispanic population by 2020
54 percent minority population by 2050
$722 billion deficit by 2019
ILLUSTRATING THE ISSUES:
SOURCES: IMF, U.S. CENSUS BUREAU,
C0NGRESSK>4AL BUDGET OFFICE
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