News
Wednesday, September 5, 2012 • page 6
The Pendulum covers the
Elon Poll shows Romney winning battle for N.C. votes
Katherine Blunt
News Editor
CHARLOTTE N.C. — The
Democratic National Convention
kicked off Sept. 3, and the latest Elon
University Poll suggests President
Obama wiU have to put up a strong
front to seaire a definite victory in this
battleground state. With 43 percent of
registered voters surveyed responding
in favor of Obama and 47 percent in
favor of former Massachusetts Gov.
Mitt Romney, it seems, at this point,
the Republican nominee is likely to win
more supporters and collect the state’s
15 electoral votes.
A panel of six political analysts
and writers convened Monday at The
Charlotte Observer to discuss the poll
results and add their insight into the
issues at hand. David Gergen, CNN
political analyst and director of the
Center for Public Leadership at the
Harvard Kennedy School, and Charlie
Cook, editor of Cook Political Report
and a National Journal columnist, were
among the panelists.
The Elon Poll is a non-partisan,
live-interview survey of North Carolina
residents. This study, conducted
in partnership with The Charlotte
Observer and the Raleigh News &c
Observer, is the first Elon Poll to ask
registered and likely voters for whom
they would vote if the presidential
election were occuring now. The
polling team conducted interviews Aug.
25-30 using a randomized list of active
landline and cell phone numbers in the
state. The poll collected responses from
1,257 registered voters, but the results
CLAIRE ESPARROS i Photo Editor
Chaiiie Cook, a panelist at The Charlotte Observer news con
ference, provides insight into poll results.
reflect the responses of1,089 individuals
who were identified as likely voters. The
results have a 3 percent margin of error.
The study is an in-depth look at
voter preference in Nortli Carolina. It
examines residents’ perception of both
the candidates and the most important
issues this election. Although Romney
was found to be the overall favorite,
the results vary when broken down
into categories such as party affiliation,
ideology, age, gender, education level
and race.
The nature of the battleground state
Although the poll shows Romney
leading the race by four percentage
points, Rob Christensen, chief political
writer for the Raleigh News & Observer,
said he believed the two candidates to
be nearly tied with only a small margin
of undecided voters to sway.
“Over the summer, we have seen
something like $50 million spent in
the state by the two campaigns, and
they really have not been able to move
the needle,” he said. “This is one poll
that has shown a litde larger Romney
lead, but most of the polls have shown
Obama up by a margin of error or
Romney up by a margin of error. I think
once we see two or three polls over the
next few weeks, we can judge if there’s
really any movement in this race.”
Despite Romney's slight edge. Cook
said he thought Obama’s significant
share of supporters illustrated the
transition of the southern state,
historically a Republican stronghold
before 2008, to a mid-Atlantic swing
state.
“The states in
the South that are
changing are the
states with a lot of
out-of-state people
moving in,” he
said. “It’s changing
the nature of the
state. (There are)
non-native North
Carolinian white
voters moving down,
and a lot of them are
not from the South, so they just vote
differently.”
But North Carolina’s inherent
political leaning will still make it
difficult for Obama to ultimately win
it over, Gergen said, suggesting the poll
is indeed indicative of the race’s final
outcome.
“Even though the state is in
transition, it is more conservative than
most states outside the South, and cer
tainly among the mid-Adantic states,”
he said. “If you ask people to identify
not by party, but by whether they’re lib
eral or moderate or conservative, the
break is 21 percent variations of lib
eral, 22 percent moderate, and 49 per
cent variations of conservative. That
is a tough environment for President
Obama. That’s not to say he can’t win
it. It is to say this convention becomes
even more important for him.”
Romney and the economy
All panelists agreed the economy
could be the defining issue of the
election, which comes on the heels
of the most severe recession since the
Great Depression. In that regard.
North Carolina voters consistently
perceive Romney as more financially
and economically trustworthy than his
opponent. Forty-eight percent of likely
voters identified the economy and jobs as
the most important issues this election,
and 55 percent of those respondents
stated Romney as their presidential
pick. Siinilarly, of the 13 percent of
voters primarily concerned with the
federal budget deficit, 77 percent would
cast their ballot for Romney.
Anita Kumar, White House
correspondent for McClatchy
newspapers, said this perception,
coupled with the high unemployment
rate in North Carolina, plays a role in
Romney’s apparent lead.
“People are looking for a change,”
she said. T think not enough things
have changed (during Obama’s term)
and (North Carolina voters) think Gov.
Romney can do a better job with the
economy. I think most of the other
polls are starting to show this state leans
Republican.”
Obama has not clearly outlined a
strategy to improve the economy during
the next four years. Cook said, further
bolstering Romneys argument for
change.
“Why will the next four years be
better than the last four years?” he
asked. “That’s a tricky question for the
Obama campaign to answer.”
Votes by demographic
In 2008, Obama won North
Carolina over John McCain by an
extremely tight margin, and exit polls
showed a high turnout of black voters,
who made up 23 percent of the vote.
Although the poll again shows high
levels of support for Obama among
black rioters, Taylor Batten, editorial
page editor for the Charlotte Observer,
said Obama cannot necessarily count on
that level of turnout again.
“There was a lot of attention paid
to black and white voter turnout and
how that was key to Obama’s victory in
2008, but when you dig into the results,
the white vote has more of an effect
(percentage-wise),” he said.
And Romney seems to have relatively
strong support from white voters, with
59 percent choosing Romney as their
preferred candidate. Although Obama
is supported by 89 percent of the black
voters surveyed, they make up only 13
percent of the sample.
Obama’s victory in 2008 was also
secured in part by the votes of adults
under 30, and although he remains
more popular with that age group than
Romney, the group’s excitement about
the election is significantly lower than
that of older age groups.
Jason Husser, assistant director of
the Elon Poll, noted this lagging enthu
siasm might prevent young people from
turning their opinions into votes.
“One of the most important issues
in determining electoral turnout is
excitement,” he said.
On the other hand, most adults over
30 expressed both support for Romney
and excitement about the election. If
Husser’s assertion about voter turnout
holds tme, these age groups will have
higher turnout rates at the polls than the
18-30 group.
“I think when you look at young
voters, it’s going to be difficult to
replicate last time,” said Kumar. “They
aren’t swept up in the same enthusiasm
of the 2008 election. This is a state that’s
on the cusp.”
Foreign pobty
Although the economy seems to be
the most prominent issue determining
this year’s election, foreign policy is
■in important part of every presidential
candidate’s campaign. In this respect,
Romney is trailing Obama in the popu
lar vote. Forty-seven percent of voters
said Obama would do a better job than
Romney in handling foreign relations,
while only 41 percent of voters thought
Romney would do better.
Gergen said the percentages reflect
the nation’s overall satisfaction with
Obama’s foreign policy so far.
“A lot of Democrats and even a lot
of Republicans found Obama did a bet
ter job (in handling foreign relations)
than they expected him to,” he said,
referring to the widespread approval of
Obama’s counterinsurgency movement
that killed Osama bin Laden, as well as
his efforts to withdraw American troops
from Iraq and Afghanistan.
Despite Obama’s successes in those
areas, Gergen acknowledged foreign
policy is not the primary concern of
many voters. But the perpetual unrest
in Syria, the growing tension between
Israel and Iran and the economic weak
nesses of the Eurozone could ultimately
influence this year’s election, he said.
“Here’s the one big question: we
don’t know what’s going to happen in
the Middle East between now and the
election,” he said. Tf Israel launches an
attack against Iran, all bets are off.”
The Obama campaign will intensify
this week as the president prepares to
address the nation Sept. 6. Whether he
can gather the support he needs to win
North Carolina is unclear, but each can
didate has just over five weeks to con
vince voters he is the man for the job.