EDSKTOH, KQBTB C&3GUHA. THCS3DA7, JUNE 80* 1980.
I The National Outlook
\ Employment And Unemployment
\ By Ralph Robs*
It may be recalled that the
employment and unemployment
report for March was highly un
favorable. The explanation was
bad weather over a large part
of the nation in the survey
week. April returned to the
normal trend and revealed sub
stantial improvement in both
categories. We now have the re
port for May. It again shows
normal seasonal changes.
Actually the April improve
ment in unemployment was not
as great as expected. In Febru
ary the seasonally adjusted un
employment was 4.8 percent of
the civilian labor force. In
March the figure rose to 5.4 per
cent. April should have erased
this entire increase but it failed
to\do so and in that month un
employment, seasonally adjusted,
stitf was 5 percent of the civilian
labor force. In May there was a
decline-of 200.000 in the number
of the unemployed, but the per
centage of the civilian labor
force unemployed dropped to
only 4.9 percent.
It is not possible >to be com
placent about this volume of un
employment. Clearly it is higher
than either necessary or desir
able from both the economic
and the social viewpoints. How
ever there are some favorable
elements in the picture when one
examines other than the total fig
ures. \
For example the long-term un
employed, those who have been
seeking work for 15 weeks and
over, declined in May by 300,000,
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and this brought the total of
this group well below a year l
| earlier. Secondly, nearly halfj
of the unemployed have been
seeking jobs for less than 5
weeks. Finally the average fac
tor work-week reversed the
downward ' trend of the past
three- months and hose to 39.8
hours. This was in spite cdka
reduction in hours of work in
steel plants. As a result of this
longer work-week average week
ly earning rose 91 cents to $90,74.
On the other hand the volume
of employment- in factories con-1
tinues to drag. It currently isj
well above a year ago, bill the'
total is still 400,000 below the
pre-recession level. Thii means
that employment in manufactur
ing is not increasing as rapidly
as production, and it appears
that this probably will remain
a permanent trend.
The failure of factory employ
ment to increase as rapidly as
output is largely explained by
the fact that during prosperity
management is less cost-minded
than normal and builds a larger
labor force than is necessary.
With a recession management re
views its operation closely and
eliminates those workers who are
not essential. Ultimately, it is
true, management may again be
come careless and build a larger
labor force than it needs, but
this takes time and it has not
happened over-all up to the pres
ent.
The reason for thinking that
manufacturing will continue to
use less labor in relation to pro
duction than heretofore is that
wages have now attained a level
where there is a tremendous urge
to use machines rather than man
power when ever possible. Such
technological unemployment does
not indicate that the total num-j
| ber of jobs will be less. Most
factories that buy machines at
tempt'to find other spots for the
displaced workers, and in many
instances this is done complete
ly. In every shop, too, there is
a certain number of resignations,
and this gives leeway for intro
' during machines without the ne
cessity of discharging, workers.
June figures will show a sharp
increase- in, both employment and
unemployment. This will be be
cause a large number of persons
get out of school and start look
ing, i|ar jobs-. Fallowing that there
will be a month by month de
cline uniat October, for purely
seasonal reasons.
Too. much weight must not toe
put on, the figures for any one
month, but we must recognize
that we have, and will have for
a long time, a genuine problem
in connection with unemploy
ment.
No Comment]
*
By JAMES W. DOUTHAT
taMut Vk» VmllMt Government
■elatleae Divide* es the Nstloaal
Association of Manufacturers
•NO COMMENT" U a report ol
incidents on the national seen*
vul does nod necessarily reflect
NAM policy or position.
Washington Conservatives in
Washington continue to battle
agginst a mass of undesirable
legislation while seeking to de-
PAGE SEVEN
[—SECTION ONE
- tenmine the possible effects of I
t Nelson Rockefeller’s attack onj
I the Eisenhower Administration I
and on Vice President Nixon. |
e Part of the Rockefeller stale
* ment was directed ait some of itjhe, 1
i hottest issues now awaiting ac
s tion by Congress. His views on
_ | these issues were sharply chal
t lenged by the conservatives.
Governor Rockefeller called for
, (1) a $3 billion increase in de
, fenae spending (contrary to the
. Eisenhower conviction that ipres
-3 ent defense spending is entirely
adequate), (2) Federal aid for
’ school construction, (contrary to
the opinion of those who think
that this is a problem for the
, states and localities to solve),
[ and (3) medical help for the aged
. through the present Social Se
-5 curity system (contrary to the
. views of those who think the
, federal government should stay
. out of this field),
r Other Rockefeller legislative
recommendations, on which no
; action is likely at this session
> of Congress, included: Revision
s of tax policies to encourage in
• vestment, elimination of feather
i bedding, and giving the Presi
. dent discretionary authority to
use compulsory arbitration in
settling economic conflicts.
I There is widespread support
for tax reform legislation along
the lines of the Herlong-Baker
bill which, among other things,
would lower the personal and
I corporation income tax rate to
a maximum of 47 percent by a
’ series of five annual reductions.
1 A determined effort is being
| made to obtain congressional ap
proval next year.
t ' Conservatives in Congress al
, so would strongly support prop
, er legislation to eliminate feath
erbedding.
But they are bitterly opposed
to any legal requirement for
compulsory arbitration. They
are in complete agreement with
Vice President Nixon’s statement
on this subject. He said:
“I have stated on several oc
casions that I am against com
pulsory arbitration of labor dis
putes, because I know that com
pulsory arbitration, from my
study of this matter as a mem
ber of the labor committee of
the House and from my obser
vation of compulsory arbitration
laws in operation in Australia
and in certain European coun
tries, inevitably results in wage
control by government, and that
means, in my opinion, a gov
erment-controlled economy."
Thus, this legislative situation
makes certain that there will be
strong congressional opposition
on some subjects—and a degree
of support (depending on de
tails) on others —to Governor
Rockefeller’s efforts to have his
views approved by Congress.
Meanwhile, a series of battles
raged in Congress as the dead
line for adjournment neared.
The national political conven
tions start on July 11 and Con
gress must finish its work by •
that time or else reconvene la- i
ter —a prospect ‘that virtually
everyone affected views with
horror. .
In this connection, Conserva
tives point out that a simple
solution is available to those
who are fearful that Congress
cannot complete action on the
mass of pending legislation in
time for ‘the conventions. The
proposed solution is this:
Let all bills die which pro
vide for budget-busting spend
ing and boosting the size of
the federal bureaucracy in
Washington.
Such measures would include:
Federal aid to education, federal
aid for housing, medical care for
the aged, increasing the mini
mum wage, increasing the salary
of government employees, and
permitting secondary 'boycotts in
the construction industry.
By eliminating further con
sideration of these issues, Con
gress could devote its time to
essential legislation and the ne
cessary appropriation bills.
Those advocating this pro
cedure point out that a session
of Congress should never be
judged on the basis of the num
ber of bills enacted—but should
be judged on the basis of the
quality and essentiality of legis
lation approved.
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