The National Outlook
Will Recovery Be Fast Or Slow?
By kalfh HUbgv
About the only question now
concerning the business upturn
is whether the recovery will be
fast or slow. Majority opinion
is that it will be slow. That
view may well be wrong.
Actually both the adjectives,
fast or slow, are ill-suited to an
appraisal of the business curve.
They are used merely as a short
cut expression for distinguish
ing between a situation where,
having hit the low point, we
ride along at that level for sev-i
eral months before turning up,
and a recession from which
there is an immediate and sharp
upturn. It is the difference be
tween a saucer-shaped recovery
and a v-shaped recovery.
Those who maintain that this
will be a slow, saucer-shaped re
covery defend this view by say
ing that history shows that a
gentle downturn is always fol
lowed by an equally gentle up
turn. Whether history actually
shows this depends upon what
statistical measure is used, and
there are many that may' be
employed—industrial production,
employment and unemployment,
gross natural product, business
profits, national or personal in
come, retail trade, government
revenues, and so forth.
Each of these series has ad
vantages and disadvantages, and
no one can be picked out as
necessarily the best. Most ana
lysts probably use industrial
production-as measured by the
index of the Federal Reserve
Board. The great advantage of
this is that it is based upon
physical units and hence price
changes do not affect it. The
high of this index was in Janu
ary of last year at 111. This
means that production in that
month was eleven percent above
the average for 1957. The in
dex was 102 for each of the
first three months of this year,
and then in April it jumped
three points to 105. For this
particular index that is an un
usual 'monthly change, and it
ddfes not lend support to the
thesis that the upturn will be
slow.
fjross national product also is
widely used for judging the
business trend. This is the
brbadest economic measure we
haye. It is the monetary value
of'2 all the goods and services
produced in the nation. Since it
is Expressed in dollar terms, a
charge of prices does affect it,
but there is a correction for this.
Government spending for goods
and services is included in the
total, and this can have an im
portant, and at times a domi
nant, influence on gross nation
al product. This is one of its
most serious drawbacks from the
viewpoint of measuring the
basic health of the economic sys
tem.
The all-time high for gross na
tional product was $505 billion
in the second quarter of last
year. In the first three months
of this year the figure was just
a shade under SSOO billion, and
between these two dates govern
ment outlays for .goods and ser
vices increased over $6 billion.
In other words, the private sec
tor declined enough to offset this
increase by government and
some $5 billion in addition.
It will be some time before
we have even a preliminary of
ficial estimate for the gross na
tional product for the current
three months, but it is widely
expected that it will be at least
equal to the previous 'high, and
some persons think it may be
close to $5lO billion. For the
final quarter of the year, pres
ent estimates are that gross na
tional product will be around
$525 billion. Almost all of this
increase will come from the pri
vate section of the economy.
If this expectation for gross
national product proves true,
which appears probable, this
will not be a slow, saucer-shaped
recovery. Rather it will mean
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that we have bad a broad and
i-ather amazingly rapid upturn.!
There still will be quite serious'
problems, both domestic and
foreign, and some of them may!
be just as pressing as they are!
today. But the outlook today
eliminates every possible justi
fication for government action to
end the recession or speed up
the recovery.
COMMENCEMENT for biblf
SCHOOL AT ROCKY HOCK
Vacation* Bible school com
mencement exercises were held
at Rocky Hock Baptist Church
Sunday night with the following
program carried out:
Processional, “Rejoice, the
Lord Is King”; depositing the
flags and Bible; quiet music;
call to worship; song, “Morning
Gilds the Skies”; the motto:
song, “For the Beauty of the
Earth”; prayer by departments;
prayer response, “O Father Unto
Thee”; the pledge to the flags
and the Bible: (1) pledge to the
United States flag; song, “My
Country ’Tis of Thee”; (2) pledge
to the Christian flag; sang, “O
Jesus I Have Promised”; (3)
pledge to the Bible; song
“Breathe Thou the Bread of
Life”; interlude, “The Church’s
One Foundation”; quiet Music;
the Scripture; anthem, “Rejoice,
Rejoice”; worship with offerings;
hymn dedication, “Bless Thou
the Gifts”; each department pre
sented something learned during
the week; Nursery Department
group sang “Jesus Loves Me”;
beginners group sang “God Is
Love”; primary group repeated
Scripture learned and sang a
song, "Tell Me the Story of
Jesus”; juniors, Carol Bryant
repeated a book of the Bible
and a group of girls sang a song
accompanied by Wilma Lee Nix
on; ten intermediate pupils told
what they learned byway of
Scripture verses; hymn, “Our
Best.”
The average attendance was
200 or more. Mrs. O. C. Lang,
Jr., was principal of the school.
Mrs. Peggy Byrum was pianist.
The Rev. Thurman Allred help
led in many ways. Mrs. Marvin
Smith drove the bus. All other
members of the faculty did a
very outstanding job.
Circles of the church -served
refreshments for all the little
folks.
Hines Explains
Assessment Plan
Continued from Page 1, Section 1
appropriation to the general
fund. This use of its profits:
automatically benefits everyone
in the same proportions and
eliminates the possibility of pub
lic money being used to im
prove private property. Where
as any other use of its money
would result in individual bene
fit and profits at the expense
of others, he said.
An assessment program re
quires that the property receiv
ing the direct benefit for the
first time pay a major portion
of cost, by the establishment of
a policy that is based on instal
lation of six inch water lines
and ten inch sewer mains with
the town absorbing, the cost of
larger size pipes; the town will
absorb the cost of bridges and
street crossings and owners of
comer lots will pay only foot
age on the short side in ex
cess of 75 feet.
Mr. Hines pointed out that
there are a number of sections
within the city limits that do
not have water and sewer or
have one without the other. In
order to install all the needed
water and sewage facilities
would cost $388,000. These in
stallations will not be made all
at once, but rather as conditions
demand them. Formulation of
plans and policy, however, axe
essential if the proper method of
financing is to be achieved.
THE CHOWAN HERALD, EDENTON, NORTH CAROLINA. THURSDAY- JUNE 15. 1961.
Engagement Announced J
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Mrs. Albert Dewey Nichols of Richmond. Va., announces the
engagement of her daughter, Lillian Gale, to Jimmy Miles Baker,
son of Mrs. Richard Copeland of Edenton. The wedding will take
place in September.
B REPORTS
nlßllil FromIWASHJNGTON
Washington—l have asked the
Public Works Appropriations
Subcommittee of the Senate
Committee on Appropriations to
authorize the expenditure of $3,-
149,800 for water projects in
North Carolina during the com
ing fiscal year.
We in North Carolina are at
the crossroads in the develop
ment of our water resources.
We are at the stage where we
can, within the next year, make
breakthroughs which will bring
about a new era of economic
progress. These breakthroughs
are in a large part dependent
upon completing a survey of
the Cape Fear River Basin
which has been under way since
1956 and speeding up a survey
of the Neuse River Basin which
also has been under way since
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1956.
In my testimony before the
Subcommittee I asked for $54,-
000 to complete the Cape Fear
River Basin survey and $94,000,
which is -$44,000 above the
President’s budget request, to
speed up work on the Neuse
River Basin survey.
I think it is more essential
than ever to bring to an early
finish both of these surveys in
view of the importance of the
two projects and in view of the
fact that the recent joint sur
vey of the Cape Fear Basin by
the Corps of Engineers and the
Soil Conservation failed to pro
duce a proposed plan whereby
the Cape Fear Basin could be
developed jointly by the Engi
neers and the Soil Conservation
Service.
Although there is a great deal
of urgency in connection with
the Cape Fear and the Neuse
as they relate to the future de
velopment of North Carolina, the
other 15 projects for which I
have asked funds are also of
vital importance to our econ
omy.
These projects are as follows: |
Flood control, construction:
$2,000,000 to complete construc
tion of the Wilkesboro Reser
voir.
Flood control, surveys; $9,500
for Waccamaw River Basin; $19,-
900 for Roanoke River Basin;
$25,000 for Santee River Basin;
and $15,000 for Reddies River
Reservoir.
Navigation, construction: $375,-
000 for Cape Fear River Lock
Rehabilitation and $342,000 for
Pamlico River into Washington *
Harbor.
Navigation, survey: $25,000 for
Cape Fear River, Wilmington to
Fayetteville; $25,000 for North-;
east Cape Fear River; $17,000 for :
Drum Inlet; $3,000 for Carolina
Beach Harbor; $12,000 for South-,
port Harbor; and SIO,OOO for Sil- j
ver Lake Harbor.
Beach erosion and hurricane
studies: $44,100 for the Federal-'
State cooperative beach erosion
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EDENTON, NORTH CAROLINA
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study on the Outer Banks and'
$79,200 for the North Carolina 1
portion of a national hurricane
study.
20 YEARS AGO
Continued from Page I—Section 1
home of Mr. and Mrs. C. Y.
Parrish.
Mayor J. H. McMullan ap
pointed Miss Corinne Forehand
and Miss Mary Privott to rep
resent Edenton and Chowan.
County respectively at the Coas-1
tal Festival to be held at More
head City.
Workmen were busily engaged
in remodeling the E. C. White
property, purchased by S. W.
Taylor, lo be used by a Pender j
store.
The Board of Public Works!
announced that it was willing to
purchase electric meters owned
by customers which the depart
ment could use. An inventory
was made in order lo discard
meters which were obsolete.
Reports coming from Raleigh
were to the effect that Lloyd
Griffin would resign as secretary 1
of the State School Commission.!
William H. Coffield, Jr., who
entered the U. S. Army at Fort
McPherson, Ga., was assigned to ’
* the Engineer Replacement Train
ing Center at Fort Belvoir, Va.
A. P. Godwin of Gatesville
made an announcement that he
would be a candidate for the
N. C. Senate.
Lloyd L. Hobbs was among
the 174 graduates of the Medical
College of Virginia.
A group of home economics
girls of Edenton High School
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PAGE THREE
—SECTION ONE
accompanied by their teacher.
Miss Josephine Grant, left for
White Lake to spend a week in
camp.
Due to lack of sales, a wine
store closed business in Edenton.
Order means light and peace,
inward liberty and free command
over one’s self; order is power.
—Amiel.