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Zty SmUj (Tor Mwl Lottery, Education Loom Large In Wide Open Governor's Race Bv Alicia Gaddy Staff Writer For the last eight years, Gov. Jim Hunt has ruled North Carolina politics. But now his throne is up for grabs, and political analysts say the five front-runners will have a tough time convinc ing voters they have what it takes to fill the shoes of the state’s most conspicuous political staple. With 13 candidates having filed for the governor’s race, five men have emerged as major contenders. Attorney General Mike Easley and Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker are the Democratic opponents. Former N.C. House Speaker Leo Daughtry, former leg islator Chuck Neely and former Charlotte mayor Richard \ inroot are the Republican front-runners. I had Beyle, UNC-Chapel Hill political science profes sor, said the next governor would come from this group of white, middle-aged, male lawyers in a state that has never had a female or minority executive. And when the May 2 primaries arrive, pundits say the Democratic and Republican primaries will be wide open races. “No particular candidate comes to this race with an overwhelming advantage,” said Jack Fleer, a Wake Forest University political science professor. Although candidates harp on their ideals and grassroots backgrounds, Beyle said the future of the state could depend on their takes on major issues - the budget, edu cation and the lottery. North Carolina’s recent economic hardships, caused by tobacco woes and bad weather, could play prominently in the election. “I think probably by the time we’re all through, money’s going to be the major issue,” Beyle said. Jay Warsaw', spokesman for Daughtry, said Daughtry hoped to streamline governmental operations to save money and create new rural jobs. “As someone who’s been successful in business, Leo Daughtry wants to use those business principles to make government more effective,” Warsaw said. Suzanne Moss, Neely’s spokeswoman, said tax cuts were a major part of his family-oriented plan. Fiasley said he felt that taxes needed to be more even ly distributed and that North Carolina should wait to lower taxes until recent economic problems were resolved. “It’s important that none of us start cutting taxes until we know what’s going to happen,” he said. Wicker spokesman Marc Stinneford said Wicker did not plan to raise taxes. “(Wicker) thinks he can carry out his plans without increasing taxes by modernizing state gov ernment,” he said. Aside from fiscal matters, Fleer said “education and keeping the money going to improve education,” would be the major issue. Congress Hopefuls Seek Presidential Coattails By Gavin Off Staff Writer Arming themselves with money, speeches and big ideas, N.C. candidates for the U.S. House are readying themselves for an all-out political war to capture Capitol Hill. Political analysts said there were several district races that would be more competitive than the rest of the state. Two districts could even have anew set of voters by the time November rolls around. And although the presidential race could affect the seating in the House, officials said taxes and education would still dominate can didates’ campaigns. Abraham Holtzman, professor emeritus of political science at N.C. State University, said the wave of popularity for presidential candi date George W. Bush might translate into a successful election for Congressional Republicans. “I believe the last time the Republicans controlled the House and Senate, it coincided with a Republican president,” Holtzman said. “This means with an increase in popularity for a Republican presidential candidate, there’s an increase in the chance of Republicans pick ing up seats in the House and Senate.” TRENDS From Page 1 The pivotal issues aspiring state lead ers will need to address include educa tion, agriculture and the environment, urbanization and rural prosperity, experts have said. “Education has been a hot topic in the United States since the late ’7os,” said Paul O’Connor, a lecturer in the School of Journalism and Mass Communication. O’Connor said the public would expect all candidates to strongly advance education in the state and to continue its traditional commitment to \\ icker said he hoped to get additional financial aid, including scholarships, for N.C. college students. But many gubernatorial candidates say, like the man they hope to succeed, they are more concerned with pri mary education, which still lags behind many other states. \ inroot spokesman Chris Neeley said he would make sure all education money went directly to classrooms. A major part of Wicker’s campaign is to improve N.C. education, including expanding the preschool program Smart Start initiated by Hunt. \\ icker hopes to take the state to anew level in edu cation,” Stinneford said. In a recent speech at the UNC-CH School of Law, can didate Neely took an alternative approach and pushed for the expansion of charter schools. “I think that competition would immeasurably and very quickly strengthen the public schools,” he said. And as the candidates debate ways to improve educa tion with financial concerns weighing heavily on voters’ minds, the lottery could be a divisive issue. In ajan. 17 televised debate, the five leading candidates drew the battle lines on state-supported / gambling. Democrats touted it as a way to raise I money without raising taxes while Republicans \ generally decried the notion as immoral. Advocates said the lottery would add a massive new money source to improve education, : Detractors, on the other hand, argue that the lottery ' is essentially a regressive tax which abuses the poor. With this year’s fiscal crisis complexities, Beyle said gubernatorial hopefuls could raise the lottery banner to avoid intense debates on fiscal priorities. “Nobody in a campaign wants to get into that because they’ve either got to raise taxes or cut pro- ( grams; so the lottery could be a screen for that,” Beyle said. But outside the debate over concrete issues, each candidate is hoping to distinguish himself within his party. With the primaries almost three months away, Bevle said anything could happen in the guber natorial arena. > “Right now, hardly anybody’s paying attention besides the people who are paid to.” Fleer said much of the fate of the race depended on future campaigning. “The race is still at a fairly early stage, and my i guess is that a lot is going to change before May.” But candidates can’t rely on their more prominent party cohorts to carry them into office. As hopefuls begin campaigning for a seat in the U.S. House, they are forced to address many of the problems plaguing the state. Analysts say tackling taxes and public edu cation would be most important " laxes will be a major issue,” Holtzman said. “The Republicans are talking about taxes, taxes, taxes; we have to cut, cut, cut.” But Mike Davis, spokesman for 2nd District Rep. Bob Etheridge, D-N.C., said, unlike Republicans, most Democrats advo cated smaller tax cuts and reinvesting any tax surpluses. "It’s easy to rally against taxes,” Davis said. "Mr. Etheridge has consistently voted to make sure our nation’s Social Security and Medicare systems are function ing for our future. After that, he is for tax cuts for the middle class.” John Hood, president of the conservative John Locke Foundation, also said taxes would be an issue. “ the debate is not about cutting taxes,” he said. "It’s about how' to go about doing it. The Republicans like higher tax cuts and rate reductions, while Democrats favor smaller cuts.” Several officials said there was a fine line the issue. “You can’t run lor governor or lieutenant governor this year without having a strong education agenda,” he said. “It doesn’t matter whether you’re Republican or Democrat.” Guillory said he agreed, adding that education has been a preeminent issue because the growth in better jobs - offering higher wages for higher skills - demanded belter education. “We’ve made some progress (in edu cation),” he said. “The question now is, how do we continue to make progress? “The pressure there is that the econ omy of the future is going to demand increasing education beyond high Focus On: State Politics . > * illifllM / between cutting taxes and regulating govern mental spending in areas such as public edu cation. 1 homas Bates, press secretary for David Price, D-N.C., said the federal govern ment must reform education and Social Securit) while lessening the tax burden on the middle class. “We saw last year where the Republicans crossed that line (between cutting taxes too much while stripping governmental spending.) They didn’t worry about paying down the debt at all.” Aside from policy debates, politicians on both sides of the aisle are grappling for control of Congress. The Republican Party is seeking to bolster its slim majority in Congress, and they see the 2nd District, which includes Sampson County', as primed for a conserva tive coup. “It’s a Democratic seat that is typi cally conservative,” Haynes said. “So we’ll talk about education, cutting taxes and cutting the overall role of the government.” But Davis said the Etheridge’s knowledge of the 2nd District made him the favorite. Two other districts, the Ist and the 12th, will also be interesting races because candi dates fighting for these seats will have to con tend with the possibility of a changing con stituency midway through the race. A federal court case is pending to deter school. Candidates need to address this in keeping the state prosperous.” The prosperity of the state has been a focal issue in light of major changes in the state’s economy, Guillory said. During the last century, the economy has significantly shifted from agriculture to industry. Now, he said, another shift has been taking place, to a technological, service oriented economy. “ This is not the kind of stuff North Carolina has seen before,” Guillory said. While this shift has benefited some, many N.C. residents have been left out in the cold economically. Guillory said, “How does the state address communities in danger of being Party Politics to Play Key Role In N.C. House, Senate Battles Bv Courtney Hathaway Senior Writer The N.C. General Assembly elections are months aw ay, but questions of which party will emerge on top are already weighing on the minds of politicians and voters. With the issue of redistricting looming soon after the elections, political officials are divided as to whether Republicans or Democrats will lead the state in a year when party dominance will play a more prominent role than it has in a decade. And with the general election still in the distant future and a legislature still set to take on the tricky task of allo cating state funds from strained coffers, the issue of how to pay for any major initiatives could plague candidates after the dust ■ I / A \ ' x \ 1 $ P l 'oC^vAj 2 / vw? % c x m '* k / \\>. /TfervV \ r\ / I / gJT I— i Xnl I / CXvi iHH J # ,|i V R\ X l /fy\( f I 'jf mine whether the two districts were drawn illegally on the basis of race, which could sig nificantly change the demographics of the voter base. Both districts have an unusually high minority constituency. Rep. Mel Watt, a black Democrat who rep resents the 12th district, said the court’s ruling could change both the shape of the district and, in turn, his platform. “Typically you would expect more housing, more education and more low-income job issues that revolve around more urban concerns.” Challenger John Cosgrove said redistrict ing would benefit his campaign. “The more compact the district is drawn, the better,” he said. “It’s better for the people first and me second.” With candidates vying for support of their philosophies on these issues, the campaigns are likely to heat up quickly, analysts say. But political expert Gary Jacobson said most districts’ challengers have an uphill bat tie if they want to capture a seat in the House. “Incumbents ought to be in pretty good shape,” he said. “People are satisfied w ith the status quo, so why rock the boat?” The State & National Editor can be reached at stntdesk@unc.edu. left behind as our economy changes?” Looking Ahead These pivotal political issues might be overshadowed by changes in the "state’s major political players. len seats exist for elected govern ment officials in the state’s executive branch. All have historically been Democrats, Holtzman said. But Guillory said the election would be a vigorous one because many candi dates would be competing for positions, without an incumbent. “It’s a very rich and textured election year.” The State & National Editor can he reached at stntdesk@unc.edu. Who will lead the state in the next century? Its volatile political landscape hinges on the 2000 elections. r Party Time Si Although largely a Democratic state, North Carolinians' conservative j\ nature has helped the cause of many Grand 01' Party members. Year President Governor Senate Seats 19% Republican Democrat year Seat#l Seat #2 1992 Republican Democrat , ono D ... 1988 Republican Republican 1998 RepubllCa " DemoCrat 1984 Republican Republican 1992 Republican Republican 1980 Republican Democrat 1986 Republican Democrat 1976 Democrat Democrat 1980 Republican Democrat 1972 Republican Republican „ ... 1968 Republican Democrat 1974 Republ,Can Democrat 1964 Democrat Democrat Democrat Democrat 1%0 Democrat Democrat 1%2 Democrat Democrat SOURCE: ELECTIONS USA Friday, February 18, 2000 the primaries settle. N.C. Republican Party political director Dan Gurley said the race would be a struggle on both sides as the Republicans, who have only won the House twice this cen tury - in 1994 and 1996 - strived to regain control. Gurley sajd winning the Senate would be good for the Republican Party, but they would focus their efforts main ly on the more achievable House. “We’re going to make an all-out push for the House,” he said. “(There will be tough competition) for seats the Democrats hold now that Republicans held previously.” But Wooten Johnson, House caucus director fotjjhe N.C. Democratic Caucus, said he was confident Democrats would hold on to the House and Senate. “People might argue that (the Republicans) can pick up some districts, but I say, no, they can’t” This battle will be especially important because the new legislature will be charged with the task of redrawing the state’s voting distric ts, providing both a pressing need for chamber control The issue is particularly crucijtl because of the narrow split between Repifblicans and Democrats in the state. I had Beyle, UNC political)science pro fessor and a veteran of N.Cipolitics, said Democrats had a comfortable majority in the state Senate because'of the way the \ l o itTpii 11 v* u .—-r? wide: )‘ ‘ Ri j \ sa ~o\ mini Hk be * decisions that are made," Beyle said. “In North Carolina, it could make a big difference.” Despite the focus on these “insider” issues, Beyle said that when the legislature begins struggling with a budget crunch in May, the dynamics of the races could change significantly. The debate, he said, could shift from what candidates want to do to how they plan to pay for it. “As the realities of the fis cal situation become clearer, it might be more of an issue.” Gurley also said the budget would be the biggest fac tor in the elections. “Most states in the country have bud get surpluses,” he said. “But North Carolina doesn’t” In addition to budget issues, some officials say educa tion should be among the immediate priorities of the can didates. Rob Lamme, press secretary for President Pro lem Marc Basnight, D-Dare, said N.C. voters considered education to be a top priority and would elect candidates who felt likewise. But Paul Gronke, a political science professor at Duke University, said he did not expect to see any drastic poli cy changes after the elections, including in education. “Both parties will say the right thing (about education to voters),” he said. “I don’t see education as a big issue. People are happy, and they’re making money.” Despite their varied opinions, officials agreed that the best chances of winning the General Assembly elections belonged to the incumbents who could offer North Carolina a fairly solid economic past Gronke also said he expected the veteran politicians to be in good shape to weather the election with ease. “Incumbents will urge voters to stick with the status quo,” But Gronke said the pending race would pale in com parison to the issues created after the redistricting of North Carolina’s voting districts. He said the 2000 election would set the stage for future elections, especially in 2002. “After the 1990 census, the Democrats were in charge and drew (lines in a way as to protect those seats," he said. “2000 is not the big election. (But after the 2000 census), it’ll be a hard-pitched battle for control.” The State & National Editor can be reached at stntdesk@unc.edu. 5 districts/are drawn now, JjoHrecause they have widespread support. He said Republicans would favor using tradi- tional census fig ures to deter mine the new districts, while Democrats would push for a sampling method that would include more minorities and fringe voters. “There’s going to be an interesting set of
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