6
Tuesday, February' 26, 2002
State Unemployment Rating Falls to 6.4 Percent
The apparent drop in state
unemployment rates might
result from the use of more
precise census data.
By Lindsey White
Staff Writer
Some economists say they are not
sure what the future holds for North
Carolina’s economy, even though the
state’s unemployment rate fell in
January for the first time in 18 months.
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Injanuary, the statewide unemploy
ment rate fell by 0.1 percent to 6.4 per
cent.
Mike Tavemise, manager of the
Raleigh branch of the N.C.
Employment Security Commission, said
the drop might result from a change in
statistical figures.
“I’m not sure if it is an actual decline
or better statistical numbers,” he said,
explaining that the December data was
based on the 1990 census and the
January data on the 2000 census.
But Tavemise said he thinks there has
been a pickup in blue-collar or service
sector jobs.
He added that white-collar jobs, espe
cially those with high-tech companies,
have been on the decline.
Tavemise said some white-collar
workers have moved to the service sec
tor to find work because the number of
jobs in the industry has increased.
“They have to make that hard deci
sion,” he said.
He said that as a result, the service
industry has become more competitive.
Tavemise said the trend is a reversal
from the norm, when workers usually
shift from the service industry to the
State
more competitive white-collar industry.
“The line between the two has
become blurred," Tavemise said.
Tavemise said jobs in the manufac
turing and textile industries also have
been declining because many compa
nies have moved to Mexico to decrease
labor costs.
UNC economics Professor Richard
Froyen said it will take at least three
months to determine what the decline in
unemployment means.
“It may just be a blip in the econo
my,” Froyen said.
In spite of the fact that increased job
availability typically does not spell an
improved economy for some time -a
phenomenon known as a lagging vari
able - Froyen said he thinks the econo
my might eventually improve.
But N.C. State University economics
Professor Michael Walden said he does
not think the drop in unemployment
indicates a long-term trend. “It may
level off,” he said.
Still, Walden said he thinks the state
has hit its peak unemployment rate.
“The worst of the recession is over,” he
said.
Walden said he thinks the employ
uhr Daily (Tar Hrrl
ment rate will pick up eventually
because of an increase in consumer
spending.
Walden said companies are making
sure that the economy is in good shape
before hiring additional people.
“They are waiting for signs of
improvements," he said.
But Tavemise said he still expects the
economy to improve. “The economy
will most likely pick up even though
unemployment is moving slowly.”
The State & National Editor can be
reached at stntdesk@unc.edu.