Newspapers / The Franklin Press and … / Dec. 29, 1938, edition 1 / Page 2
Part of The Franklin Press and the Highlands Maconian (Franklin, N.C.) / About this page
This page has errors
The date, title, or page description is wrong
This page has harmful content
This page contains sensitive or offensive material
hti two BABSON SEES BETTER Tills (Continued from Pag One) than the early months and will run 15 per cent above the last half ot 1938. The entire year's gain should average around 20 per cent. This would put the Babsonchart at 1U0 to 108 by next Christmas. No Disturbing Legislation The absence of disturbing new legislation may well spark this ad vance. Since 1933, the euei for my annual forecasts have been iuni. on Pennsylvania avenue, 'J. his u.u, we face a new .bet-up. The lnarked increase in the Republican delega tion on. Capitol Hill, plus the un purged Democrats, can lick any further New Deal reforms. On the other hand, the President still re tains enough "100 percenters" to block any serious revision of ex isting laws. The Wagner Act, for instance, may be amended, but only it the President agrees to the amend ments. Many tax law changes will be proposed, but few will go through. The biggtst fiscal reform may be the elimination of 'tax exemption on new government bonds. More over, it is possible that public em ployees will be put under the same income tax laws to which other in dividuals are subject. A lot of talk about "incentive" taxes to foster profit-sharing plans will be heard. Some change in farm legislation is in the wind. Spending To Go On f As a result of my recent poll of reader opinion on the Patman Chain Store Bill, I predict its defeat. The defense program will go ahead full blast after a strong debate in Congress, but I doubt if any spe cial taxes will be levied to support it. There will be a drive to. abolish the big SocialSecurity reserve fund and put the program on a "pay-as-you-go" basis. The only change 1 see in this program, how ever, is the stepping-up of the bene fit maximums and the applying of the Act to more people. Because of the heavy defense program, the spending faucets a Washington will be wide open. Al though the average citizen wants economy, his wishes are not heed ed by Congress or state legisla tures. I think that public extrava .. gance is one of our three biggest long-term problems. History proves that, once spending starts, it is al mast impossible to stop. Our exper ience so far bears this out. A bal anced budget is not in sight. By the end of the next fiscal year on June 30, 1940 our national debt may reach $42,000,000,000, compar tJ with $io)0U010(X),l;X) in 1930! More Jobs and Strikes. V Better business next year natur ally means more jobs. There are about 9,000,000 jobless today against 7,500XX) last Christmas. This total oght to drop at least 2,000,000 dur ing 1939. New building, railroad equipment, factory machinery, and the tool industries, plus the service businesses, .should provide a good portion of these jobs. As business increases, labor troubles may like wise increase. However, I now fore- . see no widespread strikes such as 1937 witnessed. Wages may edge higher in 1939, but I do not expect any general in creases, such as we had two years ago. Hourly rates will be marked up only in special instances later in the year. More jobs and slowly rising wage-rates should add up to the biggest payrolls and best urban buying power since the Boom. , These payrolls would even exceed 1929 were it not for the new "Wage and Hour" Act which is a ball and chain on most workers. , Farm Outlook Better Farm, income should also be bet- , ter. Farm products' prices oan score moderate advances led by wheat, corn,; fresh vegetables, and pota tbes. Butter, eggs, and milk should not sell for much more than they did in 1938. Cattle will feature the livestock picture, while bigger sup plies of lambs and hogs will hold down their prices. With wool de mand high, and world supplies not burdensome, higher prices are log ical. , ,, Indications now are that produc tion i of, farm.; products, while less than last year, will again be above average. So barring drought or other abnormal weather cond tions, farm income may jump TO per cent above 1938. Farmers' profits will be somewhat better than tjhis year .even though the goods which farm ers must buy will cast more. Be- Their Schooling Seeking possession of bis four, children In order that they might be entered in British schools, Guy Maynard Liddell, head of England's civlt intelligence department, has applied for a. writ of habeas corpus against his wife, Mrs. Calypso Liddell, mother of the children and from whom he has been separated since 1935. All tf the children are honor students In a Miami, Fla., grade school. Parachute Jumper Makes 30,000 Foot Leap liTi -V r mil , : '- fi A k i ill - , I No celestial invader is this Intrepid man. Two attendants at the Villeneuve-St. George's air field In Paris, France, carry a French para chute jumper from the field after he made a successful Jump front an altitude of 30,000 feet. He is wearing the new suit that has been per fected for stratosphere flying cause the outlook is only moderate ly better, I see no reason for farm land values to change greatly. Factd To Boost Living Costa Food eats up practically 40 per cent of the average family's budget. Hence, the strengthening of farm products prices is the biggest fac tor in the living cost outlook. In addition to bigger food bills, cloth ing will also cost more in 1939 perhaps five, per cent. An advance in fuel oil prices from; current low iigures ty Spring is a distinct pos sibility. Soft coal prices may rise slightly. The demand for coal may increase as people find that a fully automatic stoker gives certain sec tions cheaper heat than does oil. Rents should not move much in either direction except in the case of especially desirable urban prop erties. Taxes, of course, will be no lower. Electric light and gas rates will continue their? long-term down ward trend. Home furnishings, in general, will cost more. Adding up all these various items, my estir mate is that by next Christmas we may find total living costs five to eight per cent above present fig ures. Higher Wholesale Prices Before leaving living costs, indus trial commodity prices should be mentioned. They have been trailing recovery to date. In fact they are actually lower on the average than they were when business started to skyrocket last June. So an advance is in the cards for prices of such raw materials as hides, leather, rub ber, gray goods zinc, lead, lumber, and the like. These gains mean that THtt FRANKLM PlUSS AND TUt HIGHLANDS Is Matter lot Court retail prices during 1939 will reverse their long down-trend. That is why I predict that home furnishings and clothing will cost more next year. A jump iin retail price-tags and in household bills ordinarily means cutting into consumer purchases but the 1939 increase in payrolls and farm incomes should offset them. Consequently, I expect mer chants, wholesalers, and jobbers to nave a better 'year Jthan in 1938. Dollar retail sales ought to average 8 to 10 per cent above the last 12 months with the best compari sons coming, in June and October. Unit ' sales will not rise quite so much because of the higher prices. Store profits should increase even more than dollar volume of trade because there need be no stock write-downs in 1939 as there have been during the past 12 months. A heavy demand for luxury and semi-luxury merchandise is logical. Charge account business will ex pand and, while I do not like to forecast it, I think that instalment sales will probably increase faster than cash business. With the out look for higher retail prices, wise shoppers .will stock up during early '39 "clearance" .sales. Good Year For SJsmn While 1939 looks like a good year for merchants, it can be a BOOM year for salesmen. As one promi nent business man recently put it, "1939 is going to be a. salesman's year if it is going to be anybody's." Big things are ahead for salesmen who have been patiently doing their spade work through the last four or i y7 .'4- . &r five years. Man jobi and-orden I MAC ON IAN that were killed by the Recession should "break"; in 139. baiesmen in the automobile, machinery, build ing . materials, air-conditioning;, ad vertising, real 1 estate, household equipment, and ' other line. can look forward to a real year. , Best sale areas should be the industrial' sections, cities like De troit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, . Chica go,' Birmingham, Toledo,- and Uui ialo' may snow the biggest percen tage gains, but trade in the agri cultural sectioas. should also be Drv.sk. The Southeastern and South western farm areas look particular ly favorable. I advise stepping ,up advertising budgets and sales quo tas by at least .15 per cent, in reaching 19398 good markets, ad vertising managers should not for get that newspaper coverage is still ine. best and cheapest medium. Buidding To PM Industries Nearly all industries can look ahead to" better -business iin 139. A - possible 25 per cent gain in uuiiuing (with cost creeping slow iy upward) will, be the most ; im portant. A sharp increase around HJ per cent in auto, assemblies , will stimulate activity in many related industries. Railroad material and equipment should improve as the current upturn in carloadings con tinues. . Gasoline consumption, electric power output, and aviation manu facturing will hit all-time record highs. Steel operations should aver age around 60 per cent of capa city for the year. Textile mills, mines, shipyards, office equipment plants, building suppy houses, rub ber goods and tire lactones should all be from 15 to 25 per cent bus ier than in 1938. 5todu To Rls With industries activity rising, it is only logical to expect higher stock prices. Increased business, uetter earnings, pressure of idle cash, healthier trends at Washing ton should all help to strengthen the market. How far the advance will go, I am not prepared to say. There is an outside chance, howr ever, that the March, 1937 Recov ery highs can be broken during the coming year. Naturally, transactions on the various exchanges should be much more active than in 1938. Readers ask that I name those stock market groups which I feel nave the best outlook. I do not like to do so, but will, mention the chemicals, oils, electrical equip ments, raail equipments, building, machirTery, and steels as having good prospects. For 10 .years, 1 have never recommended a rail road common stock and I-do not intend to get messed up in this stock industry how. Howover, I believe that the. rails may have the oest chance of all groups in 1939 for percentage gains. This espec ially applies to certain defaulted bonds. i Sharp PnoMt and Dividend Gain During early 1939, I would pre fer to buy securities of companies in strong financial condition, with out funded debt if possible. But no security can be put away in a safe-deposit box and forgotten. Sharper, control over operating costs, brought about by the Re cession, should produce the" best profits since 1929, .excepting only late 1936 and early 1937. Only higher taxes and labor costs will prevent earnings from being the best since the Boom. With a big step-up in profits, investors can expect many . pleasant dividend surprises as the year progresses. The some factors which will help stocM prices will also rule bonds. Second-grade . issues may be the sensation of the market. Force of capital seeking investment- can 'keep high-grade bonds steady but by year-end the pres sure will be on the downside. I forecast no material change in. 1939 in our abnormally low money rates. We are one year nearer the time, however, when those invett- or,a who have over-concentrated in low-coupon, high-grade, long-term corporate and government bonds will be very sorry I Pmno. Prospects Gfoomy I urge investors to leave for eign bonds alone because interna tional relations will continue in a turmoil. The . Munich Pact merely postponed war for how long, no one knows. I am more optimistic than most observers, but I am not willing to predict as ' I did a year ago that there will be no war in Europe during, the New Year. I feel, however, that Great Britain, Fraance, and the United States will get 12 months more of peace.. Despite unsettled foreign rela tions, our overseas trade ' will ' be better than in 1938, . but not- as ; fHUASSAV, DEC, ll M good as in 193 The biggest gains Will be with Great Britian and the Dominions. The improvement in South American commerce will also . be considerable. Secretary Hull's reciprocal trade agreements and the recent Latin-American talks at Lima, Peru, v should fur ther these 'trade gains. Germany and Italy will remain poor markets and our trade with Japan will suf fer. x ' Long-Term Outlook Uncertain The above is a good outline of what I figure the New Year has in store for us. While 1939 and perhaps 1940 should be better, readers must not think that I be lieve we are out of the woods. Our standards of living must soon er or later be readjusted to actual conditions. Subsidies and other forms of government relief must some day cease. Many communities are now living in a fool's paradise. Ultimately, we' must get back to fundamentals. " I am convinced that we cannot have any lasting prosperity in America nor peace through the VVV11U Ulllll W V. SIS V V. M v, VU fc" w character, A v revival of unselfish ness, and. a renewal of our love for our fellowmen. When . this takes place we will ' have truly "Happy New Year." ; NOTE : This is a copyrighted article. It cannot be reproduced either in whole or in part with out permission from the Pub lishers Financial Bureau, Babson Park, Mass. Controlled Breeding Of Cattle Important- Controlled breeding of beef cattle is important in the production of an economical, well-developed herd, says L. I. Case," beef cattle special ist of the State college extension service. On the well managed farm, beef cows are. generally bred in the late spring or early summer-in order that they may calve at the proper time. In Eastern North Carolina, under average conditions, the bull is allowed to run with the cow herd during. May, June and. July, and the calves arrive in February, March and April the following year. During the remainder pf the year the bull is .kept in a small, strongly-fenced pasture, or lot, either by himself or with a bred cow for company,, This same procedure, with perhaps some variations to siut local conditions, is followed in Piedmont and Western North Car olina. . There are several advantages in haying the calves come at the same time of the year. Dry cows can be wintered more easily - and cheaply than cows nursing calves. Winter and earlv snrinc rnivt tienallv orrvOtr off faster, and make better, animals than calves dropped in the summer r.n -. j i . time, close together in the spring of the .year, . can all be weaned at the same time. Their uniform ages makes it possible to pasture, House and feed them together. Steers of about the same weight and age also pan be marketed easier since buyers will make offers for lots when they don't have to guess at the age of the individual steers. Of course, if a small herd is kept and beef is slaughtered for home use the year round, it would be more practical to have the calves dropped at diferent times. However, controlled breeding will aid com- K Bryant Furniture Co. EVERYTHING FOR THE HOME AT REASONABLE PRICES Pkons 1C Franlclin, N.C. v ONE STEP WONT GET YOU THERE And One AD Won't Bring Success You Mutt Keep On X:-i'Adwtinjf,:'.
The Franklin Press and the Highlands Maconian (Franklin, N.C.)
Standardized title groups preceding, succeeding, and alternate titles together.
Dec. 29, 1938, edition 1
2
Click "Submit" to request a review of this page. NCDHC staff will check .
0 / 75