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(One Day Nearer Victory) THURSDAY, DECEMBER 30, 194J THE WAYNESVILLE MOUNTAINEER Page 6 ) I it i 1 1 I 1 ! . i I 1 ' .1 n 3.944 iiiosDDness epeoDdls ion Fall Of tons Politics In 1944 To Play Big Part In Business-War Much Depends On Progress On War Fronts, Famous Statistician Predicts (Continued from Page 1) ers are now wary of it. As good war news increases, consumers will wait for new postwar merchandise rather than buy synthetic war made goods. Merchants should keep a workable inventory. Do not over stock. It will make a difference in 1944 business whether Germany cracks in the early or latter part of the year. When this happens Washing ton will begin at once to cancel war orders, especially on the Atlantic Seaboard. The army will accept no more recruits, may begin orderly demobi'ization. Navy men may be in for two or three years more. Army demobilization may start around election time in 1944. This should help retail trade. INDUSTRIES DIFFER Expansion of airplane factories has been practically completed. Au tomotive industry during 1944 will gradually reconvert to normal. New car stockpile low. Look for relief only on trucks. The chemical in dustry has enjoyed great expan sion. This may continue. Leaders in new drugs should prosper. Heavy chemicals may not show any gain over 1943 volume. Building about the same level for total new build ing as in 1943. Relaxing restric tions on private construction will come in near future. Gains in 1944 will show in this category when compared with 1943. Am optimis tic on postwar home building. The shoe and clothing industries are beset by price ceilings and in creased costs. These will continue through 1944. Woolen industry will remain very active. Rayon will continue at capacity output. Cot ton textiles will be fairly active nearly equal last year's level. With Germany out, consumer demand for these goods should quickly replace war orders. Dairy products will be scare because of feed problems. Slaughter houses should do a big volume. Cereal products will do well. Canned goods will feel ef fects of sharp higher costs and low er output. Bituminous coal de pends upon labor union policy, but I expect output to be at least 10 jipr cent better in 1944 than in 1943. Air transport will gain in equip ment and efficiency. Manpower is far from solved. The trend of the industry is up for both air pas sengers and freight. Railroads will continue to suffer from equipment shortages. War peak of traffic is i Rectal Soreness Get Relief New Easy Way Sit In Comfort ProUnnon RectmJ to a quick. deptniUbU rllver of Itching, painful ractal aoranau irmptmna which may also accompany plica and hemorrhoid. Brings aootblnf ante of comfort upon contact, forma pro tacting film over aor area, hdpa destroy Infectio gernu, aid Natura heal up raw, broken m. No oil - no create to atala olo thing. Sold on money back guarantee, fiet thia modern relief today . . . aak for PROLARMON RECTAL SMITH'S DRUG STORE Thumbnail Outlook For 1944 GENERAL: Year 1944 should be divided into two parts: (a) From January 1st to date of Ger many's collapse ; and (b) from said date to Decem ber 31st. PRODUCTION : Babsonchart Index will average around 130, about 12 below 1943. COMMODITIES: Strength in various commo dities should be followed by renewed weakness. SALES : Retail sales dollar volume will average higher for entire year, but physical volume will be down 10. LABOR: Pressure for higher wage rates will continue throughout the year with more labor trou bles and more wage increases than in 1943. STOCKS: If the market is low when Germany cracks it will then go up; but if then high, it will go down. BONDS: Good and medium grade bonds will hold close to present levels throughout the year. passed. Railroad needs are so acute that higher priorities for equipment will be forced. After the war, railroads will have a ter rible slump. With much less to haul, they will face, as never be fore, competition from coastwise shipping, river transportation, new pipe lines, airplanes and trucks. Eastern roads will slump as soon as Germany collapses. Electronics and television should boom. Heavy electrical equipment orders may decline slightly in 1944. Kilowatt output may be 10 per cent better in 1944 than in 1943. Lumber volume will continue to be reduc ed. Backlog of machine tool orders is declining sharply. Subcontracts may help. Nonferrous metals are held down by acute manpower shortages. Paper and pulp will be affected by the cut in newsprint. Paperboard output in 1944 should equal lD-l.'i. Refinery petroleum output in 1944 will run 10 per cent above 191.1. Higher prices for crude probable. All-time peaks in steel output scheduled for 1944. Shipbuilding may not show further gains, but launchings will. OUTLOOK FOR LABOR Crux is whether sufficient skilled and unskilled workers can be chan neled into critical war industries. It is estimated that 2,000,000 work ers must be added to essential plants in the next few months. However, over 2,000,000 men and women reach age 18 every twelve months. Therefore, the labor situ ation may begin to ease. There will be many disputes but most upsets will be of short duration and small scope. Labor leaders must threaten rise and fall of strikes. If rolling back prices is successful, pressure for higher wages will be considerably reduced. After Ger many cracks, there will be no scar city of labor. Labor's honeymoon is approaching its end. There will be no railroad strike in 1944. STOCK MARKET The 1944 long-term trend of Freedom of CHOICE YWTTH ALL THE TALK about Freedoms, what about freedom of choice? After all, freedom of choice can mean the same thing ai all the other freedoms people are talking about and a few others besides. In large measure, freedom of choice is what this war is about. Freedom of choice means such ordinary things as trying soy beans in the south field next year, if yon think it's the thing to do It means buying the kind of flour you think gives you the best biscuits. It means you and your boy ' doing the deciding whether he'll go to college, or learn to be a toolmaker. Freedom of choice is the soil in which character grows. This freedom of choice and its counterpart, a sense of responsibility for the decisions made has done much to develop the character that is going to win this war on the battle fronts, on the farm, in industry. And when the vic tory is won, the kind of America we have fought and worked to preserve must be a country in which every man and woman, and every boy and girl, will have freedom of choice in even greater measure. General Electric Co., Schenectady, N. Y. llutr tlx Cmtrtl Eltctric radii fro fr ami: "Tlx G-E All-rirl Orchestra" Sunday 10 p.m. EWT, NBC "Tht Wnli ToUfv mwt, v mrj wUy t:45 p.m. EWT, CBS. , ' BUY WAR BONDS , GENERAL ELECTRIC stock prices is definitely upward. A growing hoard of money seeks investment. Few new stocks are available. Present holders are less willing to let stocks go, except at higher prices. The rise from May, 1942 to July, 1943, was a long, un broken advance. A period of con solidation, such as from July 14 to date, was in order. The next few months may still be marked by ir regularity. This should not dis turbe real investors. Corporations are adjusted to wartime operations. Any material change in the war situation may create temporarily upsetting uncertainties. On the bullish side the market strengthen ed in the face of the largest War Bond Drive in our history WHAT STOCKS TO BUY Some industrial groups appear mole attractive than others. Build ing stocks should benefit from the expected boom after the war. BONDS, INTEREST RATES AND PREFERRED STOCKS The government forbids a cor poration to manipulate the price of its securities but the government is using artificial means to force down interest payments needed by wid ows, orphans and others dependent upon savings or life insurance. This is unfair. Government Bonds dominate the high-grade field. Cor porates are being called in increas ing amounts. Institutional inves tors and trustees have to bid very high on the few remaining corpor ates or buy Governments. In view of the relatively greater risk in corporatcs, I favor confining high grade bond purchases to the E, F and G War Series, preferably E's. Otherwise, hold cash. Municipals are too high. I expect no near-term shift in interest rates. They may remain low as long as government financ ing must be carried on in large vol ume, or as long as restrictions are placed upon the expansion of busi ness to meet civilian demands and the money hoard continues to grow. TAXES There may be a small increase in 1944 taxes. This increase wi'l hurt only a few industries through increased excise taxes. Income taxes, inheritance taxes, gift taxes, and probably corporation taxes will rema'n about where they are or lowered. Furthermore, 1944 may be the last year of tax misery. Taxes should begin to decline in 1945. Investors should especially keep in mind that when excess profit taxes are eliminated many coroorations en mpke more money and pay more dividends with much smaller gross earnings. POSTWAR JOBS Men and women who left jobs to enter the armed forces should have no trouble getting jobs when they return. Those who entered the "armchair" forces at Washington or elsewhere may have real trouble with getting postwar jobs. Men who were unemployed when they entered the armed forces will get postwar jobs based on their war record and behavior. Character and habits wi'l be an important consideration. Men and women who left employers in the lurch to get more money or thrills may be left "high and dry" when the war is over. There will not be a good job for everyone after Germany cracks. In fact, there will begin to be unem ployment with Roumania, Bulgaria or Hungary give up, which I ex pect fairly soon. POLITICS AND INFLATION Unless Germany collapses before August, Roosevelt will be re-nominated and probably re-elected. It looks now as if Willkie would be nominated if the Republican lead ers believe Fooseve't has the elec tion in the bag. This would be a good way of getting rid of Willkie forever. Another possibil ity is that Willkie may accept second place on the Democratic ticket. The Re publicans will put their efforts upon Congress. In November, 1944, they should secure a good majority of the House and six more Senators. When I look further ahead, 1948 seems now like a good Republican year with Gov. Dewey the victor, in case Willkie is not already President. During the 1948-52 term will come the next depression followed by a return of the Demo crats in 1952. Then there will be more Socialistic experiments and the real inflationary period. In the meantime, we will have slowly creeping inflation until 1948; but nothing radical. After Roosevelt is re-elected with a Vice President satisfactory to him, I should not be surprised to see him resign to accept the head of the new World Organization whatever this may be. This could take place as soon as Japan is whipped possibly in 1945. HOW LONG WILL WAR II LAST? Intelligent forecast of 1944 busi ness should be based upon some assumption as to the length of the war. If Germany is to crack with in a short time, 1944 may be a very different year, but consider the following: (1) Churchill is very close to Roosevelt. He desperately wants him re-elected. Knowing that only a continuation of the European con flict through October, 1944, will assure this, he is not hurrying his Second Front. (2) As the Republicans have not yet insisted upon "unconditional surrender," the German and Japa nese people think their chances might be better with a Republican President which is a temptation for them to hold out. (3) Stalin is definitely waiting until after November 6, 1944 be fore making certain decisions, and this will delay Germany's collapse. (4) Although the Washington New Deal group might do nothing to prolong the war merely to in sure themselves another four years of power, yet they surely would not be adverse to others doing so. (5) Generally good war news should feature 1944. The battle hardened Russians should continue to drive the German hordes back. As we enter 1944 the war has rounded second base and is on the way home. As, however, I stated in my 1942 and 1943 Annual Fore casts, we should not expect an end ing of the War until gas, chemicals or bacteria bombs are used. All of the above may be upset by the death or serious illness of Roosevelt, Churchill, Stalin, Chiang or perhaps even Hitler in 1944. NEEDED: MORE RESEARCH AND RELIGION Businessmen are faced with three vitally important questions: ( 1 ) Is it time now to give up seek ing war contracts and prepare plants for civilian goods output? (2) Should subcontracting be re duced by approximately 50 per cent so as to be ready for civilian goods production? (3) Is all-out war production to utmost capacity the best course to pursue? My advice is: Continue to take all war subcontracting you can get pro vided it will not tie your plant up beyond Flection Day next year. Stop further expansion plans now. Work research and postwar plan ning departments overtime. Give orders now for reconversion equip ment. Finally, 1944 will see a continu ation of the conflict between those two phlio'ophical theories which are splitting civilization today. These may be expressed by the eternal question of whether man (1) is a spiritual being to be guid ed by the Ten Commandments; or (2) is a evolutionary animal per mitted to follow the rules of the jungle even when possessing a col lege diploma and dressed in a tux edo. If our first assumption, the one for which our churches stand, is adopted as a goal, the coming year can be the beginning of a , Says lalbson HOSPITAL NEWS The condition of Willard Hicks, of Mt. Sterling, operative case, is good. Mrs. J. A. Way, of Hazelwood, medical case, is better. Mrs. D. A. Williams, of Canton, medical case, is resting more comfortably. Mrs. Eli Fletcher, of Waynes ville, route 1, medical case, is better. Miss Mary Early, of Waynes ville, route 1, operative case, is better. Mrs. W. T. Wilson, of Waynes ville, route 1, medical case, is improving. Mrs. J. H. Rose, of Canton, route 3, operative case, is improving. Joe Smith, of Johnson City, ope rative case, is improving. Tom Wyatt, of Waynesville, route 2, operative case, is better. John Smith, of Canton, route 2, medical case, is resting more comfortably. Baby Wilma Cagle, of Waynes ville, route 2, medical case, is bet- glorious future. If the second, which too many educators are tea ching, is allowed to grow, then World War II may have been in vain. In the end, spiritual forces must overcome the material forces or civilization is sunk. The hope of a better postwar world lies with greater research and more religion. ter. Miss Frances Wright, 0f w, nesville, operative case, i.s reBtf more comfortably. Miss Susie Trantham, or Clyde route 1, operative case, i better. ' Baby Lee, of Waynesville, rout 1, medical case, is improving Mrs. M. W. Parker, of rato medical case, is improving. DISCHARGED Among those discharged from the Haywood County Hospiui dur mg the past week were the follow mg: Mrs. Robert Mehaffey and baby, Manson Howell, Mrs Uvi Fowler, Mrs. D. K. Clark Mrs. Howard Wright, Master Terr Swanger, Mrs. W. S. Mills, Mrs. Henry Holcombe, Mrs. W. R Nash. Mrs. Lawrence Queen and baby Mrs. Robert Keener and baby Mrs' G. J. Calvin, H. H. King,' Mrs! Odell Lockman and baby, Mrs. Gro ver Rathbone and baby, Mrs. Sadie Kirkpatrick, Miss Edith Hampton Mrs. Beaman Blanton and 1W dore Frady. BIRTHS Mr. and Mrs. Grover Rathbone, of Clyde, route 1, announce the birth of a son on December 21t Mr. and Mrs. Ernest Jones, of Canton, announce the birth of t son on December 22nd. Mr. and Mrs. W. E. Ni hula, Jr., of Waynesville, route 1, announce the birth of a daughter nn Decem ber 22nd. Mr. and Mrs. James Salter, of Hazelwood, announce the birth of a daughter on December 25th. Mr. and Mrs. James Daniels, of Balsam, announce the birth of a daughter on December 25th. ... LISTING List Yoor Property Give In Yomr Poll IN JANUARY Listing Begins January First All property owners and taxpayers in Haywood County are required to return to the list Takers for Taxation for the year 1941 all the Real Estate, Personal Property, etc., which each shall own on the First day of January. All male persons between the ages of 21 and 50 are required to list their polls during the same time. All persons who own property and fail to list it and all who are liable for poll tax and fail to give themselves in will be deemed guilty of a misdemeanor. TOWNSHIP LISTERS Ivy Hill Taylor Ferguson Waynesville . . J. S. Black Jonathan Creek . . Walter Wright East Fork K. G. Burnett Cataloochee Mark Caldwell Iron Duff Joe Medford Fines Creek France Rogers Cecil Ned Moody Crabtree Frank Medford Beaverdam . . . James Henderson Pigeon Gay Burnett Clyde Wayne Mediora
The Waynesville Mountaineer (Waynesville, N.C.)
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Dec. 30, 1943, edition 1
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