Babson Predicts Better Year
In 1962, Minus Nuclear War
(Ed. Notes The Herald publishes
herewith the annual business and
financial forecast of Roger Bab•
son, Massachusetts economist.
Mr. Babson’s vtfv forecast 'was 88
percent correct.)
а. I am hopeful for 1962: it
should be a better year for my
readers than 1961. Industrial pro
duction will exceed* that of 1961.
2. There will he neither a nu
clear war nor total disarmament
in 1962. Considerable progress
may be made toward a ban on
atomic weapons.
3. Some thirty stocks may rea
ch an average of 1000 during
1962, although these will not
necessarily be the thirty Dow
Jontes stocks.
4. Retail: trade will make new
records during 1962. Increased
newspaper advertising, especially
In colon, win bo a great boon to
merchandising.
5. Commodity prices will act
erratic during 1962. Agricultural
prices will be held up by legisla
tion, but many metals will sell
for less.
б. The official cost-of-living fi
gure will rise Slightly hi 1962, but
there may be a scandal In Wash
ington over how this figure is
calculated or adjusted. The real
increase In the cost-of-living will
be due to increased wages de
manded.
7. The only certain shortages
during 1962 will be in land suit
able for parking places and wa
terfront property readily accessi
ble to building lots; also for au
tomobile “graveyards" near cities
which have been zoned.
8. The 'building of shelters will
took silly before the end of 1962.
Certainly the Federal Govern
ment will not underwrite the
building of private shelters for
Individual families.
9. Good real estate must rise
tn price as the population increa
ses. Elementary mathematics de
termine the price of suburban
real estate This is notwithstand
ing the claim of the “space com
panies” which are said to be
interested in selling rights on the
moon. Thane probably are crazier
Speculations.
TO. While the land oh which
your house now stand® should
Increase In value during 1962, the
building itself depreciates from
the moment when it is first oc
cupded. A possible exception
would be certain very attractive
ranch houses painted In color.
11. Automobile production will
be the most Important Statistical
Indicator during 1962. TWs ap
plies to both the number of au
tomobiles and their sales value.
We now have no reliable figures
for the latter.
12. We will gradually approach
an average of two cars for every
family. The life of automobiles
gradually increase. The percent
age of automobiles annually de
stroyed wiill decrease in 1962.
13. Automobiles and gasoline
will toe increasingly, sources for
raising money toy taxation.
These means will be extended to
Include an additional assessment
on the maunfacturers of auto
mobiles.
14. Taxes as a whole, will
continue to Increase in 1962 for
every family. Business net taxes,
however, will decrease in 1962,
through the granting of depre
dation refunds which can toe done
by ExeUcttve order. The manu
facturer may greatly increase his
deductions for past investments
and new machinery, plant, and
equipment. Douglas Dillon feels
that such tax reductions will in
crease the purchase of new e
qulipment, develop greater effici
ency, and result in a net impro
vement in the employment situa
tion. This is good news for 1962.
15. Speculation in real estate
and securities Will toe active dur
ing 1962; but good children will
gradually toe recognized as the
best Investment. Young people
will toe married earlier and will
want to have large families.
16. Public education will grad
ually be recognized during the
years ahead. Sehoolhouses will
be built as places to “park the
kids” while the parents are at
work. New sehoolhouses will be
built so as not to be over one
story hdgh, with lots of sunshine.
17. Owing to the lack of air
port facilities and to inadequate
equipment, there will toe increas
ing airplane accidents during
1962.
18. With all the above changes,
plus increased public improve
ments and longer vacation peri
ods, families must save some
how and cut somewhere. I think
It will begin In 1962 with doth
Ing. This will gradually become
cheaper and more attention will
toe paid to color, i
19. The time is approaching
when the weaving of cloth will
be greatly curtailed. Clothes will
be made like paper. Mastic coats
are already on the market. These
are produced toy feeding the
cel lophane into a machine which
cuts to desired sizes and bonds
(not sews) the material into
beautifully finished goods of
different colors.
20. We win hear more about
automjatikxn during 1962. But the
coat of building automatic facto
ries to so great that the change is
coming slowly. Even electronics
has been overemphasized.
21. There need toe no unemploy
ment among steel workers during
1962. But Government unemploy
ment figures win remain high.
Foreign competition, due to low
wages abroad, will toe an impor
tant factor. Women will prefer to
work in air • conditioned factori
es and have their home pantries
filled with precooked foods.
22. Labor unrest will grow in
extent and power. The Kennedy
Administration is friendly to un
ion leaders and their demands.
There will toe demands for more
“fringes” in 1962. A steel strike
is possible.
23. This means that with incre
ased taxes, prices of retail prod
ucts will be higher. This will be
blamed on ‘'inflation” of money;
but it will toe due to inflation of
living standards.
24. The real value of the dollar
will decline slightly during 1962,
due to the decrease in the pro
ductivity of labor. The electronics
industry will temporarily suffer
in 1962 if atomic warfare is out
lawed. But otherwise the elecro
ndos industry will Increase for
some years to come and hold up
the dollar value. Watch polymer
chemicals and “epoxy” cements.
25. There will be enough mon
ey for mortgages insured by the
Federal 'Housing Admiiiistraitian
in 1962. Plenty of money will be
available for mortgages guaran
teed by the Veterans Administra
tion, although this supply varies
with different sections of the
country. Interest rates on con
ventional loans not having ar;
government guarantees will toe a
No. 4 TOWNSHIP
TAX LISTING
Begins Tuesday
January 2,1962
At the Courtroom. City Hall, Kings Mountain
Daily Except Saturdays
8 a. m. to Noon & 1 to 4:30 p. m.
At Grover, R. E. Hambright's Store
Saturdays, fanuary S, 13,20,27
CONRAD HUGHES. TAX LISTER
Ail property owners ore required by law to list all real and personal
property for taxes.
Males between the ages of 21 and 50 are required to list for poll
taxes. Dogs and firearms must be listed.
If you live on a farm, you are also required to make a farm report.
LATE LISTERS WILL BE PENALIZED — UST EARLY
AND AVOID THE LAST MINUTE RUSH
Max W. Hamrick
CLEVELAND COUNTY TAX SUPERVISOR
little higher. Real estate people
will worry about the public?s de
sire to build, rather than about
their obtaining mortgage money.
26. The kilowatt hours of
electricity produced in 1962 will
exceed the total of any previ
ous year. This is favorable to
utility preferreds.
27. Steel, production in 1962
will exceed this year’s 100 mil
lion tons, but the increase will
come from producing steel in
colors.
28. Cement production will be
about the same in 1962 as in
1961, but the industry's capacity
to produce is increasing too rap
idly in view of the demand. The
cement manufacturers must give
more attention to colors.
29. Expenditures for plant and
equipment in 1962 will Increase,
supplemented by large appropri
ations for repainting factories
and offices in many colors.
30. Newsprint production de
pends upon the number of news
id
le-!
papers and the amount of
wrttsing sold. I forecast a
dine in the amount of newspjint
sold during 1962, but advert^ »
receipts may increase throi rh
the better use of colors. -j
may result in the increased fie
of coated paper to better t j^e
printing — With a 50 percent in
crease of advertising rates.
01. Furniture mamufaetU] a-s
are marking up prices so t tat
young couples will buy fufl, ^
in the raw and paint same th m
selves.
32. There wfll be some incre ses
m color TV sales in 1962. ln j ^t,
I think the present TV mai cet
is far from being .saturated
33. First-class postage j tes
will not be increased during i (62.
Hence, more money will he 8] ^
on direct mail selling, • <his
should help job printers in 1 62,
as their present margin of pi ofit
is very small. 'Billboard adve tts
irtg will Increase during 1962. due
to a new kind of paint.
34. Lumber will do well to
hold its own in 1962 and mue] of
it will be scfld colored. Wal -to
wall carpeting will become
more popular, reducing the
of the best hardwood flooi
35. Fewer “scatter rugs”
be sold in 1962. Rug dealers must
go to brighter colors, ever for
"orientals.’’
36. One of the greatest devel
opments during 1962 will be the
increased use of color in homes,
offices, store®, and factories. This
should increase both the demand
for-and the price of good paint.,
37. Exports will probably in
crease during 1962, but the sur
plus of tirade in favor of the U
nited States is constantly decrea
sing.
38. President Kennedy is en
couraged by the recent elections
in New York, New Jersey, and
Texas. This Demooatic trend will
continue during 1962, notwith
standing former President Eisen
hower's campaign speeches.
though most industries will do
more favorable to “big business”
in 1962 ONLY when he is able
to use big business to increase
employment. Profit margins will
not improve during 1962, al
though most industries will de
better in terms of gross and vol
ume.
40. Bond prices will not chan
ge much during 1962, except in
the case of “non-taxables." Eu
ropean investors are buying A
mteriaan stocks and bonds feeling
that their money is safer in Uni
ted States industries and real
estate. Even the first mortgage
bonds of transcontinental rail
roads are being bought by Euro
peans. The manufacturers of
West Germany are making huge
profits through the use of new
machinery and low wages. They
are sending their money to the
United States to be invested. They
seem to prefer suburban real es
tate, shopping centers, and' elec
tric utilities. I hope they are not
buying into too many “fly-by
night” new electronic companies.
41. Buying of Mutual Funds,
will continue to exceed selling in
1962. Considering that brokers,
make much more profit by sell-|
ing (Mutual Funds than by selling,
shares of individual stocks—and;
considering the thousands of j
salesmen selling (Mutual Funds—
this Should help stock prices dur
ing 1962. 'Remember that the Mu
tual Funds operators must go to
the New York Stock Exchange
to purchase stock to support
these Mutual Funds which sales
men are selling in the field.
42. The so-called "service indus
tries'’ — including education,
beauty parlors, travel, entertain
ment, and government positions,
—should prosper in 1962.
43. Among th efasitest growing
industries in 1962 will be the
plastics and glass industries.
These materials will gradually
take the place of wood, stone, ce
ment, and even some metals —
except as these are colored. Plas
tics and glass will become more
important building materials and
perhaps be used much more ftyrj
automobiles.
44. Some unexpected event or
discovery will cause the Dow
Jotnes Industrial Average to sell
much higher during the next few;
years. As an illustration of whalt
one of these unexpected events
will be, I mention developments
in chemistry, inducting “DMA”
and ‘TINA”, which may provide
the source of life and extend it
—yes, perhaps res/tore it, in spe
cial cases.
45. I am bullish on Canada for
sale investments during 1962.
Canada has a small Mifplation of
only about 18,000,«». .tout it is
■rick in material re***rces and
has a sound, progressive govern
ment. I do not expect a nuclear
war to toe Started by 'Russia; but
If it comes, Canada will be a good
place to live and have your mo
ney invested.
46. Souith and central America
Iso have great natural resour*
»g; ibut most of their countries
ne ruled by selfish dictators. I
elieve most of our southern nei
will suffer from serious
inflation during 1962 and became
a great problem for the United
States.
47. Although the countries of
Europe could be the greatest suf
ferers in Case of World War III,
the people I meet in Europe fail
to realize 'this. I forecast that
they will look at the situation
more , realistically during 1962.
48. West Germany is very,
prosperous; East Germany is in
terrible condition. Much unem
ployment exists in Italy, Finance,
and even Great Britain. I advise
against investing money in Eu
rope during 1962.
49. I am uncertain how to ad
vise about Africa. But It is very
rich in natural resources — in
cluding1 gold, diamonds, and al
most every metal— as well as
Having the greatest undeveloped
(Continued On Page 8even)
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